memeorandum: Iowa Independents Prefer Democrats 2:1 Over Republicans (Blue Texan/Firedoglake)

1:55 PM ET, January 3, 2008

Top Items:

Richardson Set to Send Obama Second-Choice Support — [Exclusive] Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable.

The Politico:

Thompson may drop out, back McCain — DES MOINES, Iowa - Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's Iowa caucus. — Thompson's campaign …

Zogby:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Moves Into Lead Followed by Edwards; Huckabee Lead Widens — Clinton, Romney dip as Ron Paul gains — UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama continued his upward momentum through the evening before the Iowa caucuses, capturing the lead ahead …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, TPM Election Central, The Newshoggers, Taegan Goddard's …, The Corner, Captain's Quarters, Wonkette, Comments from Left Field, Open Left, Pajamas Media and Hot Air

Byron York / The Corner:

Team Fred Strongly Denies... Good morning from Des Moines. I just got off the phone with Rich Galen, a top adviser to Fred Thompson, and it would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson “will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus.”

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, Hot Air, TIME, Political Machine, QandO and PoliBlog (TM)

IowaPolitics.com Caucus Countdown Blog:

Thompson: Poor finish in Iowa won't end campaign — GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said in an in-studio interview with KCCI-TV in Des Moines that there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa.

Discussion: Captain's Quarters, The Anchoress, Examining Presidential …, Right Wing Nut House, The Palmetto Scoop, Betsy's Page and TPM Election Central

Tim Dickinson / Rolling Stone:
The Iowa Caucuses: Five Not-So-Unlikely Surprises

Discussion: Newsweek and RealClearPolitics

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:
Candidates Offer Final Messages to Iowa Voters

Discussion: Immigration Chronicles and PoliGazette

Adam Nagourney / New York Times:
Domestic Issues Now Outweigh Iraq

Discussion: The New Republic, Wall Street Journal, The Swamp, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Environmental Republican and American Power

David S. Broder / Washington Post:
Wait for New Hampshire — MANCHESTER, N.H. — One final reminder …

Discussion: The Newshoggers, New York Times, The Opinionator, Salon, Eschaton, CNN, National Review, Associated Press, The Mahablog and Cogitamus

Redstate:
One More on the Politico Hit Job

Discussion: Hot Air

Jane Hamsher / Firedoglake:
Late Nite Bar And Other Rumors From Iowa

Discussion: The Fix, American Prospect and Hullabaloo

Thomas Beaumont / Des Moines Register:

Independents plan to caucus with Dems — Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democrat presidential candidates than Republicans at today's Iowa caucuses. — Iowa independents are expected to follow the lead set by their national peers in 2006.

Discussion: MSNBC, PoliGazette, New York Times and TPM Election Central

Marc Ambinder:

Caucus: Clinton Revises Turnout Model Up — ** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing …

Discussion: Reuters, TalkLeft, MyDD, TPM Election Central and Des Moines Register

CNN:
Caucuses 101: Mastering rules could lead to victory

Discussion: The Carpetbagger Report, Wonkette and VodkaPundit

Blue Texan / Firedoglake:
Iowa Independents Prefer Democrats 2:1 Over Republicans

Discussion: Open Left and Comments from Left Field

Pig / WanderingGoblin.com:

Goblin Literature — Ron Paul, the Future President of Azeroth — Ron Paul, the Future President of Azeroth — I am, by my own admission, the worst journalist in gaming. Before I begin writing about the World of Warcraft Ron Paul rally, it's important that you understand this.

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish: Ron Paul: For President Of Azeroth!

John Kass / Chicago Tribune:

For Marine's sendoff, his car is keyed — Marine Sgt. Michael McNulty — now on his way to Iraq for his second tour of duty in the war — took meticulous care of his car. — It is a black two-door BMW, an expensive ride for a young Marine from Chicago, but then, McNulty didn't exactly join …

Discussion: The Jawa Report and UrbanGrounds

Foreign Policy:

Seven Questions: Gen. David Petraeus on Winding down the Surge — By the end of July, 25 percent of American combat troops are due to withdraw from Iraq. FP sat down with Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, to find out how he plans to draw down without leaving chaos behind.

Discussion: Weekly Standard, The Daily Dish and PoliGazette

Chuck Todd / MSNBC:

Get your post-caucus spin now — With this guide, you can analyze any result — before the Iowans gather — DES MOINES, Iowa - In a matter of hours, following the results of the Iowa caucuses, a contest will begin. It will take place among the slew of national media trying to determine exactly what happened.

Discussion: RealClearPolitics, Ben Smith's Blogs, Left in the West, Democratic Strategist and Blue Crab Boulevard

Daily Mail:

Flashman author George MacDonald Fraser dies aged 82 after cancer battle — George MacDonald Fraser, author of the hugely entertaining Flashman novels, has died aged 82. — Fraser - whose fans included P G Wodehouse and Kingsley Amis - died after a battle with cancer.

Discussion: The Newshoggers

Vanity Fair:

Karl Rove — A principal architect of the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush, Karl Rove, 57, has charted a long course from the internship he landed with the Republican Party in Utah almost four decades ago. Here, the president's former deputy chief of staff reflects on his fear of going broke …

Discussion: Rising Hegemon

Diane Cardwell / New York Times:

Political Field Is Panned by Bloomberg — With unusually dismissive language, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg offered tart assessments of his potential presidential rivals at a news conference on Wednesday, suggesting they are offering meaningless bromides rather than serious answers to the problems confronting the country.

Discussion: New York Observer and Liberal Values

New York Post:

ROCK MAKES THE GARDEN HOWL — RAUNCHY stand-up Chris Rock had Madison Square Garden in stitches Monday night, when he kicked off his six-month tour performing for a sold-out New Year's Eve audience of 20,000 fans who gave him a midnight standing ovation. — The comic from Bed-Stuy proclaimed …

Richelieu / Weekly Standard:

Richelieu: Predictions — Your Cardinal has been busy converting the wicked in the bars and political back-rooms of icy Iowa, and offers a few final thoughts and predictions. — 1.) Obama is going to win and could do so by a strong margin. Hillary and Edwards trail, with 60% chance Hillary comes in third.

Discussion: Washington Post and No Left Turns