memeorandum: Too Quick to Triangulate — Sen. Hillary Clinton faces tonight's … (Robert D. Novak/Washington Post)

12:35 PM ET, January 3, 2008

Top Items:

Richardson Set to Send Obama Second-Choice Support — [Exclusive] Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable.

Discussion: Captain's Quarters, Firedoglake, Hot Air, Open Left, Taylor Marsh, MyDD, CommonDreams.org, The Carpetbagger Report, Comments from Left Field, The Raw Story, Blue Hampshire and Cliff Schecter

Zogby:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Moves Into Lead Followed by Edwards; Huckabee Lead Widens — Clinton, Romney dip as Ron Paul gains — UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama continued his upward momentum through the evening before the Iowa caucuses, capturing the lead ahead …

Discussion: The Newshoggers, TPM Election Central, Captain's Quarters, The Corner, Open Left, Pajamas Media, Comments from Left Field and Hot Air

Robert D. Novak / Washington Post:

Too Quick to Triangulate — Sen. Hillary Clinton faces tonight's Iowa caucuses not as the inevitable Democratic presidential nominee but seriously challenged by Sen. Barack Obama, thanks in no small part to committing a strategic error: premature triangulation.

Discussion: Back Talk, The Carpetbagger Report, Associated Press, The American Scene, Booman Tribune, Blue Crab Boulevard, Macsmind and ScrappleFace

Tim Dickinson / Rolling Stone:

The Iowa Caucuses: Five Not-So-Unlikely Surprises — The smart money — not to mention the latest polls — gives an edge to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in tonight's Iowa caucuses. — But take a couple hundred thousand Midwesterners, pack them into gyms and libraries and town halls …

Discussion: Newsweek and RealClearPolitics

John Deeth / Iowa Independent:
Clinton Understood Surface, Not Spirit, Of Caucuses

Discussion: Crooks and Liars

The Politico:

Thompson may drop out, back McCain — DES MOINES, Iowa - Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's Iowa caucus. — Thompson's campaign …

Byron York / The Corner:

Team Fred Strongly Denies... Good morning from Des Moines. I just got off the phone with Rich Galen, a top adviser to Fred Thompson, and it would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson “will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus.”

Discussion: Political Machine, TIME, PoliBlog (TM), QandO, Betsy's Page, Hot Air and Primary Monitor Blog

IowaPolitics.com Caucus Countdown Blog:
Thompson: Poor finish in Iowa won't end campaign

Discussion: Captain's Quarters, Right Wing Nut House, The Palmetto Scoop and TPM Election Central

Comment is free:

Independents' day — US elections 2008: Voters who are not affiliated to either the Republican or Democratic parties may be decisive in picking the next president — There is a spectre haunting this year's presidential campaign: the independent voter. Buoyed by the Des Moines Register poll predicting …

Discussion: The New Republic

Matthew Yglesias:

The Independents — John Judis and Ruy Teixeira take a look at the demographic and ideological characteristics of self-described independents and their potential role in the presidential election. It's clear that the post-partisan rhetoric from Barack Obama that's annoyed a lot of bloggers …

Discussion: Eschaton

Thomas Beaumont / Des Moines Register:
Democrats may draw more independents

Discussion: Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, New York Times, MSNBC and TPM Election Central

Foreign Policy:

Seven Questions: Gen. David Petraeus on Winding down the Surge — By the end of July, 25 percent of American combat troops are due to withdraw from Iraq. FP sat down with Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, to find out how he plans to draw down without leaving chaos behind.

Discussion: Weekly Standard, The Daily Dish, Environmental Republican, PoliGazette and Redstate

CNN:

Caucuses 101: Mastering rules could lead to victory — (CNN) — The arcane rules governing Thursday's Iowa Democratic caucuses will test even the most organized campaign, but mastery of the process could launch a candidate on a path to the White House. — Most Americans are familiar …

Discussion: The Carpetbagger Report and VodkaPundit

Gail Collins / New York Times:
The Slice of the Sliver Speaks

Discussion: Washington Post, TIME: Swampland and The Rude Pundit

Marc Ambinder:

Caucus: Clinton Revises Turnout Model Up — ** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing …

Discussion: TalkLeft, Reuters, MyDD, TPM Election Central and Des Moines Register

Chuck Todd / MSNBC:

Get your post-caucus spin now — With this guide, you can analyze any result — before the Iowans gather — DES MOINES, Iowa - In a matter of hours, following the results of the Iowa caucuses, a contest will begin. It will take place among the slew of national media trying to determine exactly what happened.

Discussion: Left in the West, Ben Smith's Blogs, RealClearPolitics, Democratic Strategist, Blue Crab Boulevard and Donklephant

Nicholas Wapshott / New York Sun:

In Surprising Turnaround, McCain Is New GOP Front-Runner — Iowa Republicans will caucus this evening in the wake of a startling turnaround in the electoral fortunes of John McCain. A new poll from Pew Research places the Arizona senator, whose chances have been written off repeatedly …

Discussion: The Corner

Detroit News:
The Detroit News endorses McCain

Discussion: Boston Globe

Vanity Fair:

Karl Rove — A principal architect of the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush, Karl Rove, 57, has charted a long course from the internship he landed with the Republican Party in Utah almost four decades ago. Here, the president's former deputy chief of staff reflects on his fear of going broke …

Discussion: Rising Hegemon

New York Post:

ROCK MAKES THE GARDEN HOWL — RAUNCHY stand-up Chris Rock had Madison Square Garden in stitches Monday night, when he kicked off his six-month tour performing for a sold-out New Year's Eve audience of 20,000 fans who gave him a midnight standing ovation. — The comic from Bed-Stuy proclaimed …

Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Slaying of popular teens stuns friends — Sisters' father wanted for capital murder — Sarah Said was an avid tennis player known as a silly but bright student. Her 18-year-old sister, Amina Said, was often called “the girl with pretty eyes,” friends say.

Discussion: Associated Press, Gateway Pundit, Dallas Morning News and Debbie Schlussel

Michael Moore:

Who Do We Vote For This Time Around? A Letter from Michael Moore — A new year has begun. And before we've had a chance to break our New Year's resolutions, we find ourselves with a little more than 24 hours before the good people of Iowa tell us whom they would like to replace the man …

Discussion: American Street, Easter Lemming Liberal News, UrbanGrounds, TownHall Blog, BitsBlog and The Sideshow

Daily Mail:

Flashman author George MacDonald Fraser dies aged 82 after cancer battle — George MacDonald Fraser, author of the hugely entertaining Flashman novels, has died aged 82. — Fraser - whose fans included P G Wodehouse and Kingsley Amis - died after a battle with cancer.