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1:40 PM ET, January 3, 2008

Top Items:

Thompson may drop out, back McCain — DES MOINES, Iowa - Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's Iowa caucus. — Thompson's campaign …

Byron York / The Corner:

Team Fred Strongly Denies... Good morning from Des Moines. I just got off the phone with Rich Galen, a top adviser to Fred Thompson, and it would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson “will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus.”

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, Hot Air, TIME, Political Machine, QandO, PoliBlog (TM) and Primary Monitor Blog

IowaPolitics.com Caucus Countdown Blog:

Thompson: Poor finish in Iowa won't end campaign — GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said in an in-studio interview with KCCI-TV in Des Moines that there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa.

Discussion: Captain's Quarters, The Anchoress, Examining Presidential …, Right Wing Nut House, The Palmetto Scoop, Betsy's Page and TPM Election Central

Zogby:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Moves Into Lead Followed by Edwards; Huckabee Lead Widens — Clinton, Romney dip as Ron Paul gains — UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama continued his upward momentum through the evening before the Iowa caucuses, capturing the lead ahead …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, TPM Election Central, The Newshoggers, Taegan Goddard's …, The Corner, Wonkette, Captain's Quarters, Open Left, Comments from Left Field, Pajamas Media and Hot Air

Chase Martyn / Iowa Independent:

Richardson Set to Send Obama Second-Choice Support — [Exclusive] Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable.

Tim Dickinson / Rolling Stone:

The Iowa Caucuses: Five Not-So-Unlikely Surprises — The smart money — not to mention the latest polls — gives an edge to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in tonight's Iowa caucuses. — But take a couple hundred thousand Midwesterners, pack them into gyms and libraries and town halls …

Discussion: Newsweek and RealClearPolitics

Thomas Beaumont / Des Moines Register:

Independents plan to caucus with Dems — Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democrat presidential candidates than Republicans at today's Iowa caucuses. — Iowa independents are expected to follow the lead set by their national peers in 2006.

Discussion: MSNBC, New York Times and PoliGazette

CNN:
Caucuses 101: Mastering rules could lead to victory

Discussion: The Carpetbagger Report and VodkaPundit

David S. Broder / Washington Post:
Wait for New Hampshire — MANCHESTER, N.H. — One final reminder …

Discussion: The Newshoggers, New York Times, The Opinionator, Salon, Eschaton, National Review, Associated Press, The Mahablog and Cogitamus

Blue Texan / Firedoglake:
Iowa Independents Prefer Democrats 2:1 Over Republicans

Discussion: Comments from Left Field

Pig / WanderingGoblin.com:

Goblin Literature — Ron Paul, the Future President of Azeroth — Ron Paul, the Future President of Azeroth — I am, by my own admission, the worst journalist in gaming. Before I begin writing about the World of Warcraft Ron Paul rally, it's important that you understand this.

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish: Ron Paul: For President Of Azeroth!

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:

Candidates Offer Final Messages to Iowa Voters — DES MOINES — With an eye on the weather forecast and faith in their organizations, the presidential candidates wound down their Iowa caucus campaigns on Thursday and sought to manage their expectations as they nervously awaited a verdict …

Discussion: Immigration Chronicles

Adam Nagourney / New York Times:
Domestic Issues Now Outweigh Iraq

Discussion: The New Republic, The Swamp, Los Angeles Times, Environmental Republican and American Power

Michelle Malkin:

Rumor watch: GOP mudslinging in the works? — For the most part, the GOP presidential candidates have waged clean, substantive campaigns. With a few notable exceptions, the office-seekers have attacked each other's records and eschewed ad hominems. But word has been spreading on the right side …

Discussion: the evangelical outpost, PoliGazette, The Sundries Shack, Hot Air and Riehl World View

Foreign Policy:

Seven Questions: Gen. David Petraeus on Winding down the Surge — By the end of July, 25 percent of American combat troops are due to withdraw from Iraq. FP sat down with Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, to find out how he plans to draw down without leaving chaos behind.

Discussion: Weekly Standard, The Daily Dish, PoliGazette and Redstate

John Kass / Chicago Tribune:

For Marine's sendoff, his car is keyed — Marine Sgt. Michael McNulty — now on his way to Iraq for his second tour of duty in the war — took meticulous care of his car. — It is a black two-door BMW, an expensive ride for a young Marine from Chicago, but then, McNulty didn't exactly join …

Discussion: The Jawa Report and UrbanGrounds

Marc Ambinder:

Caucus: Clinton Revises Turnout Model Up — ** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing …

Discussion: Reuters, TalkLeft, MyDD, TPM Election Central and Des Moines Register

Chuck Todd / MSNBC:

Get your post-caucus spin now — With this guide, you can analyze any result — before the Iowans gather — DES MOINES, Iowa - In a matter of hours, following the results of the Iowa caucuses, a contest will begin. It will take place among the slew of national media trying to determine exactly what happened.

Discussion: RealClearPolitics, Ben Smith's Blogs, Left in the West, Democratic Strategist and Blue Crab Boulevard

Daily Mail:

Flashman author George MacDonald Fraser dies aged 82 after cancer battle — George MacDonald Fraser, author of the hugely entertaining Flashman novels, has died aged 82. — Fraser - whose fans included P G Wodehouse and Kingsley Amis - died after a battle with cancer.

Discussion: The Newshoggers

New York Post:

ROCK MAKES THE GARDEN HOWL — RAUNCHY stand-up Chris Rock had Madison Square Garden in stitches Monday night, when he kicked off his six-month tour performing for a sold-out New Year's Eve audience of 20,000 fans who gave him a midnight standing ovation. — The comic from Bed-Stuy proclaimed …

Richelieu / Weekly Standard:

Richelieu: Predictions — Your Cardinal has been busy converting the wicked in the bars and political back-rooms of icy Iowa, and offers a few final thoughts and predictions. — 1.) Obama is going to win and could do so by a strong margin. Hillary and Edwards trail, with 60% chance Hillary comes in third.

Discussion: Washington Post and No Left Turns