memeorandum: McCain's Victory Muddles G.O.P. Field as It Looks to Michigan (Michael Luo/New York Times)

10:40 AM ET, January 9, 2008

Top Items:

Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? — DERRY, N.H. — When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes. — A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad.

Melissa McEwan / Shakespeare's Sister:

Shut Up, Maureen Dowd — Part wev in an Ongoing Series by Tart and me, named elegantly and succinctly by Tart, about the World's Most Obnoxious Feminist Concern TrollTM. — Wow. MoDo needs some spectaular amounts of Shutting Up for this one, which is mind-blowingly appalling …

Discussion: Lance Mannion, Whiskey Fire, Buck Naked Politics and Rox Populi

Adam Nagourney / New York Times:

Clinton Escapes to Fight Another Day — MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton is back. — With solid support from registered Democrats and the backing of women, who deserted her in Iowa, Senator Clinton beat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a margin that — if not particularly wide …

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, Washington Post, The Moderate Voice, The Politico, Sigmund, Carl and Alfred, American Street, Feministe, QandO, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, The American Scene, Middle Earth Journal, ABCNEWS, Jules Crittenden, TalkLeft, No More Mister Nice Blog and The Democratic Daily

Michael Calderone / The Politico:

After N.H., can the media come back? — Cable news pundits may have successfully predicted John McCain's victory in New Hampshire, but they sure had a lot of explaining to do around 10:30 p.m., once The Associated Press and MSNBC projected victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. — “The polls were so wrong.

Discussion: Washington Post, Time, FishBowlDC, The Reaction, American Street, The Gun Toting Liberal™, The Page and PSoTD

Kathleen Hennessey / Associated Press:
Obama wins endorsement of SEIU Nevada

Discussion: The Caucus, Pam's House Blend, MyDD and TPM Election Central

New York Times:
Clinton Is Victor, Turning Back Obama; McCain Also Triumphs

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Washington Post, CNN and The Heretik

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:
From a Big Boost for Obama to a Sharp Blow

Discussion: Captain's Quarters and Washington Post

Washington Post:
N.Y. Senator Defies Polls, Edges Obama

Discussion: Blue Crab Boulevard and TalkLeft

Gary Langer / The Numbers:

New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco — There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

Discussion: Marc Ambinder, The Belmont Club, Blue Crab Boulevard, Betsy's Page, Soccer Dad, Redstate and BizzyBlog

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG:

NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Results Announced for Clinton/Obama — [UPDATED several times at end of article, and still developing with new updates...] — I'm not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight.

Discussion: Corrente, CANNONFIRE, Right Wing News and THE LIBERAL JOURNAL

Matthew Yglesias:

How Wrong Were The Polls? — Commenter Brian makes an observation “No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results …

Discussion: MoJoBlog, Betsy's Page and Whiskey Fire

Washington Post:

Polls Were Right About McCain but Missed the Call on Clinton's Primary Win — While pre-election polls in New Hampshire got Sen. John McCain's margin of victory about right on the Republican side, late polls fundamentally mischaracterized the status of the Democratic race.

Discussion: The Swamp

Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
NH RESULTS THREAD

Discussion: The Opinionator, Political Radar and Spin Cycle

Will / Attytood:

Is “Bradley effect” behind the Clinton surge? — Does Hillary Clinton's unexpectedly strong showing in New Hampshire tonight mean that the racially charged Bradley effect" is still hanging around in American politics? — The “Bradley effect” is the name that some political pundits gave …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Sister Toldjah and Macsmind

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:

The Return Of The Bradley Effect? — It's one explanation for the big gap between the final polls and the result: … Tonight is the first primary - not a caucus. People get to vote in a secret ballot - not in front of their largely liberal peers, as in Iowa.

Discussion: J-Walking, RealClearPolitics, Brendan Nyhan, The Campaign Spot, Wolf Howling, New York Magazine, Publius Endures, The Agonist, Roger L. Simon, Matt Zeitlin and PolySigh

Kathleen Gray / Detroit Free Press:

McCain, Romney about to take Michigan by storm — Starting today, it's Michigan's turn. — And the state's presidential primary, at least on the Republican side, apparently has come down to a two-man battle between Arizona Sen. John McCain, fresh off Tuesday's victory in the New Hampshire primary …

Discussion: Riehl World View

June Kronholz / Wall Street Journal: For the Losers, the Campaign Isn't Over Just Yet

Michael Luo / New York Times:
McCain's Victory Muddles G.O.P. Field as It Looks to Michigan

Discussion: USA Today, Washington Post, Associated Press, The Politico, TIME, Political Machine, The Daily Dish and The Page

Daniel Gross / Slate:

WHY WERE THE POLITICAL FUTURES MARKETS SO WRONG ABOUT OBAMA AND CLINTON? — So, I've been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction market has reinforced my opinion that these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets.

Discussion: The Big Picture, Open Left and JustOneMinute

Rick Moran / Pajamas Media:
HILLARY CLINTON WINS, PUNDITS LOSE

Discussion: Publius Pundit, Maggie's Farm and News Hounds

Kevin Drum / Washington Monthly:
HILLARY'S WIN....I have several reasons for being pleased …

Discussion: Outside The Beltway, Matthew Yglesias and Buck Naked Politics

Tom Maguire / JustOneMinute:

Bold Prediction: The Impending Obama Media Backlash — So here is the latest Bold Prediction, inspired by a late night and little caffeine - Obama is about to endure a media backlash. — Why a bursting of his media bubble? Well, they (alright, “they") have finally admitted what was obvious …

Discussion: The Page, Hot Air, QandO and FishBowlDC

Kenneth Lovett / New York Post:
BARACK'S ‘FAIRY TALE’

Discussion: The Moderate Voice

Ed Morrissey / Captain's Quarters:

Did The Ronulans Disappear Overnight? — A funny thing happened on my way to the predictable onslaught of Ron Paul supporters in my comments section after yesterday's post about his newsletters. The onslaught never arrived — and neither did the supposed Revolution from New Hampshire.

Discussion: Reason Magazine, Easter Lemming Liberal News, Fausta's blog and The Daily Dish

The Daily Howler:

WE SIMPLY REFUSE TO BE TRUTHFUL! Peter Fenn seems like a nice guy. He won't tell the truth even now: — WE GOOFED: Yesterday's HOWLER didn't get posted. To ponder what might have been, see THE DAILY HOWLER, 1/7/08. — CHARLIE AND BETSY SPIN SOCIAL: In our view …

Eric Boehlert / Media Matters for America:

Kristol and Dowd, together at last at the NY Times — Was The New York Times' decision to hire de facto Republican consultant Bill Kristol as a political columnist really such a shock? The more upsetting realization for longtime readers may be that the move actually made sense …

Discussion: Firedoglake and Eschaton