memeorandum: New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco (Gary Langer/The Numbers)

12:05 PM ET, January 9, 2008

Top Items:

Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? — DERRY, N.H. — When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes. — A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad.

Gary Langer / The Numbers:

New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco — There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

Discussion: The Opinionator, Pollster.com, ABCNEWS, Commentary, Wake up America, Argghhh!, The Belmont Club, Soccer Dad, Blue Crab Boulevard and Redstate

Adam Nagourney / New York Times:

Clinton Escapes to Fight Another Day — MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton is back. — With solid support from registered Democrats and the backing of women, who deserted her in Iowa, Senator Clinton beat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a margin that — if not particularly wide …

Will / Attytood:

Is “Bradley effect” behind the Clinton surge? — Does Hillary Clinton's unexpectedly strong showing in New Hampshire tonight mean that the racially charged Bradley effect" is still hanging around in American politics? — The “Bradley effect” is the name that some political pundits gave …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Hullabaloo, Pandagon, Sister Toldjah, Macsmind and All Spin Zone

Melissa McEwan / Shakespeare's Sister:

Shut Up, Maureen Dowd — Part wev in an Ongoing Series by Tart and me, named elegantly and succinctly by Tart, about the World's Most Obnoxious Feminist Concern TrollTM. — Wow. MoDo needs some spectaular amounts of Shutting Up for this one, which is mind-blowingly appalling …

Discussion: Whiskey Fire, Lance Mannion, Lawyers, Guns and Money, Buck Naked Politics and Rox Populi

Kathleen Gray / Detroit Free Press:

McCain, Romney about to take Michigan by storm — Starting today, it's Michigan's turn. — And the state's presidential primary, at least on the Republican side, apparently has come down to a two-man battle between Arizona Sen. John McCain, fresh off Tuesday's victory in the New Hampshire primary …

Discussion: Wall Street Journal, Outside The Beltway and Riehl World View

Michael Calderone / The Politico:

After N.H., can the media come back? — Cable news pundits may have successfully predicted John McCain's victory in New Hampshire, but they sure had a lot of explaining to do around 10:30 p.m., once The Associated Press and MSNBC projected victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. — “The polls were so wrong.

Discussion: Washington Post, Political Machine, The Reaction, FishBowlDC, The Gun Toting Liberal™, American Street, The Peking Duck, PunditGuy, The Swamp and American Power

Greg Sargent / Horses Mouth:

One Day After Saying He'll “Never Underestimate Hillary Clinton Again,” Chris Matthews Says She's Only A Presidential Candidate Because Bill “Messed Around" — January 9, 2008 — 9:36 AM EST // link // — Normally Chris Matthews isn't worth the bother, because he serves up so much non-stop clowning …

Discussion: Taylor Marsh and Rising Hegemon

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:
From a Big Boost for Obama to a Sharp Blow

Discussion: Captain's Quarters, Washington Post and Time

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:
The Return Of The Bradley Effect?

Discussion: Outside The Beltway, Wolf Howling, The Campaign Spot, RealClearPolitics, J-Walking, New York Magazine, Brendan Nyhan, Publius Endures, The Agonist, Matt Zeitlin and Roger L. Simon

Marc Ambinder:
What Happened To The Polls? The Sbornak Effect?

Discussion: Salon and Althouse

Washington Post:
Polls Were Right About McCain but Missed the Call on Clinton's Primary Win

Discussion: The Swamp and New York Times

Ed Morrissey / Captain's Quarters:

Did The Ronulans Disappear Overnight? — A funny thing happened on my way to the predictable onslaught of Ron Paul supporters in my comments section after yesterday's post about his newsletters. The onslaught never arrived — and neither did the supposed Revolution from New Hampshire.

Discussion: Hot Air, Vox Popoli, Fausta's blog, Easter Lemming Liberal News and Reason Magazine

Isaac Chotiner / The Plank:

A Little Anti-Libertarian Gloating — I can't help but feel a bit of schadenfreude at the dismal showing of Ron Paul in last night's New Hampshire primary. He received about nine percent of the vote, good enough for fifth place. Interestingly, the warm feeling I am getting does …

Discussion: Megan McArdle, The American Scene, The People's Republic …, Cadillac Tight and DBKP

Tom Maguire / JustOneMinute:

Bold Prediction: The Impending Obama Media Backlash — So here is the latest Bold Prediction, inspired by a late night and little caffeine - Obama is about to endure a media backlash. — Why a bursting of his media bubble? Well, they (alright, “they") have finally admitted what was obvious …

Discussion: New York Post, The Page, Hot Air, FishBowlDC, QandO, PoliGazette and NewsBusters.org

Michael J. Totten:

The Rings on Zarqawi's Finger — “I am a ring on your finger." — Al Qaeda in Iraq member Abu Anas to Abu Musab Al Zarqawi — Since Abu Musab Al Zarqawi formed the Al Qaeda in Iraq franchise, the terrorist group that destroyed the World Trade Center has fought American soldiers …

Discussion: Gateway Pundit, Jules Crittenden, Michael Yon and BLACKFIVE

Washington Post:

Clinton Thanks New Hampshire for Comeback After Primary Win — SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, D-N.Y. : Thank you. Thank you. — I come tonight with a very, very full heart. — And I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you and, in the process, I found my own voice.

Discussion: The Huffington Post, The Seminal and TalkLeft

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG:

NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Results Announced for Clinton/Obama — [UPDATED several times at end of article, and still developing with new updates...] — I'm not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight.

Discussion: Corrente, Right Wing News, CANNONFIRE, Brilliant at Breakfast, Pam's House Blend and THE LIBERAL JOURNAL

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:

Why She Won — Now buried behind many other posts, here's my take on what happened in New Hampshire. Part of me is crushed. But part of me is happy to see two candidates forced to battle it out in a long slog. We find out more that way. They grow more. More people get a say. That's a good thing.

Discussion: Balloon Juice

Mahjoun / Drunkard's Lamppost:

Diebold and New Hampshire — At the completion of the New Hampshire primaries, certain elements are are claiming an “astonishing” discrepancy between the results tallied by hand and those tallied by Diebold machines. Naturally reddit jumped on the bandwagon as fast as possible.

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, newsmediatube.com, Political Machine, Cadillac Tight and BobKrumm.com