memeorandum: Is “Bradley effect” behind the Clinton surge? (Will/Attytood)

10:10 AM ET, January 9, 2008

Top Items:

Clinton Escapes to Fight Another Day — MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton is back. — With solid support from registered Democrats and the backing of women who deserted her in Iowa, Senator Clinton beat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a margin that — if not particularly wide …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Moderate Voice, The Politico, Sigmund, Carl and Alfred, American Street, Feministe, QandO, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, The American Scene, ABCNEWS, Middle Earth Journal, Jules Crittenden, Outside The Beltway, No More Mister Nice Blog, TalkLeft and The Democratic Daily

Michael Calderone / The Politico:

After N.H., can the media come back? — Cable news pundits may have successfully predicted John McCain's victory in New Hampshire, but they sure had a lot of explaining to do around 10:30 p.m., once The Associated Press and MSNBC projected victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. — “The polls were so wrong.

Discussion: Washington Post, Time, FishBowlDC, The Reaction, American Street, The Gun Toting Liberal™, The Page and PSoTD

Washington Post:

N.Y. Senator Defies Polls, Edges Obama — As early returns showed a neck-and-neck race in the Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton prepared to proclaim herself the latest comeback candidate to emerge from New Hampshire after defying predictions that she would be swamped by Sen. Barack Obama.

Discussion: Blue Crab Boulevard and TalkLeft

Greg Veis / The Plank:

What We Can Learn From The Democratic Exit Polls — I've looked at the current Democratic exit polls, which, incidentally, are adjusted later to fit the final results, so what I have to say here must taken as subject to revision. What they show is that the pattern that held up earlier …

Discussion: Liberal Values, PrestoPundit and Spin Cycle

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:

From a Big Boost for Obama to a Sharp Blow — NASHUA, N.H. — On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Senator Barack Obama delivered a message to supporters: “Do not take this race for granted. I know we had a nice boost over the last couple of days, but elections are a funny business.”

Discussion: Captain's Quarters and Washington Post

New York Times:
Clinton Is Victor, Turning Back Obama; McCain Also Triumphs

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, CNN, Washington Post and The Heretik

Ari Melber / The Huffington Post:
Inside Clinton's Narrow Comeback

Discussion: The Democratic Daily, skippy the bush kangaroo, Salon and Dick Polman's American Debate

Maureen Dowd / New York Times:

Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? — DERRY, N.H. — When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes. — A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad.

Discussion: Eschaton, protein wisdom, Firedoglake, Taylor Marsh, Norwegianity, Buck Naked Politics, Jon Swift, New York Magazine, Hot Air, Salon, michellemalkin.com, Prairie Weather, Brilliant at Breakfast, ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES, Capitol Annex, TalkLeft and Politics

Melissa McEwan / Shakespeare's Sister:
Shut Up, Maureen Dowd

Discussion: Lance Mannion, Whiskey Fire and Rox Populi

Gary Langer / The Numbers:

New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco — There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

Discussion: Marc Ambinder, The Belmont Club, Blue Crab Boulevard, Redstate, Betsy's Page, Soccer Dad and BizzyBlog

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG:

NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Results Announced for Clinton/Obama — [UPDATED several times at end of article, and still developing with new updates...] — I'm not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight.

Discussion: Corrente, CANNONFIRE, Right Wing News, Easter Lemming Liberal News and THE LIBERAL JOURNAL

Matthew Yglesias:

How Wrong Were The Polls? — Commenter Brian makes an observation “No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results …

Discussion: MoJoBlog, Betsy's Page and Whiskey Fire

Washington Post:
Polls Were Right About McCain but Missed the Call on Clinton's Primary Win

Discussion: The Swamp

Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
NH RESULTS THREAD

Discussion: The Opinionator, Political Radar and Spin Cycle

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG:
NH PRIMARY DISINFO ALERT: ‘Problems’ …

Discussion: Zogby

Kathleen Gray / Detroit Free Press:

McCain, Romney about to take Michigan by storm — Starting today, it's Michigan's turn. — And the state's presidential primary, at least on the Republican side, apparently has come down to a two-man battle between Arizona Sen. John McCain, fresh off Tuesday's victory in the New Hampshire primary …

Discussion: Riehl World View

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:

Giuliani Sinks to Fourth in Florida — A new Datamar poll in Florida finds Mike Huckabee leading the Republican presidential primary race with 24% support, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Sen. John McCain at 18% and Rudy Giuliani now back in fourth place at 16%. — Two months ago, Giuliani led the GOP race.

Discussion: ABCNEWS, The Plank, The Moderate Voice, No More Mister Nice Blog, The Reaction, PoliGazette, Hotline On Call, Talking Points Memo, The Daily Dish and Hot Air

Hugh Hewitt / Townhall.com:
On To Michigan (and South Carolina, Nevada and Florida and 2/5)

Discussion: Real Clear Politics, Marc Ambinder, Hot Air, race42008.com, Punditry and alicublog

The Politico:
N.H. opens path to nomination for McCain

Discussion: Washington Post, MSNBC, The Caucus, TIME, The Daily Dish and No More Mister Nice Blog

Forbes Blogger / Digital Rules:
GOP Chances, Tonight And Beyond

Discussion: Ross Douthat and Eunomia

Michael Luo / New York Times:
McCain's Victory Scrambles Field

Discussion: USA Today, Associated Press, The Politico, TIME and The Page

Will / Attytood:

Is “Bradley effect” behind the Clinton surge? — Does Hillary Clinton's unexpectedly strong showing in New Hampshire tonight mean that the racially charged Bradley effect" is still hanging around in American politics? — The “Bradley effect” is the name that some political pundits gave …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Sister Toldjah, Kiko's House and Macsmind

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:

The Return Of The Bradley Effect? — It's one explanation for the big gap between the final polls and the result: … Tonight is the first primary - not a caucus. People get to vote in a secret ballot - not in front of their largely liberal peers, as in Iowa.

Discussion: J-Walking, Brendan Nyhan, The Campaign Spot, Wolf Howling, Publius Endures, New York Magazine, The Agonist, Roger L. Simon, Matt Zeitlin, Best of Both Worlds and PolySigh

Daniel Gross / Slate:

WHY WERE THE POLITICAL FUTURES MARKETS SO WRONG ABOUT OBAMA AND CLINTON? — So, I've been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction market has reinforced my opinion that these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets.

Discussion: The Big Picture, Open Left and JustOneMinute

Rick Moran / Pajamas Media:
HILLARY CLINTON WINS, PUNDITS LOSE

Discussion: Publius Pundit, Maggie's Farm and News Hounds

Kevin Drum / Washington Monthly:
HILLARY'S WIN....I have several reasons for being pleased …

Discussion: Outside The Beltway, Matthew Yglesias and Buck Naked Politics

Tom Maguire / JustOneMinute:

Bold Prediction: The Impending Obama Media Backlash — So here is the latest Bold Prediction, inspired by a late night and little caffeine - Obama is about to endure a media backlash. — Why a bursting of his media bubble? Well, they (alright, “they") have finally admitted what was obvious …

Discussion: The Page, Hot Air, QandO and FishBowlDC

Kenneth Lovett / New York Post:
BARACK'S ‘FAIRY TALE’

Discussion: The Moderate Voice

Houston Chronicle:

More e-mails emerge in Harris County DA scandal — County GOP says Chuck Rosenthal should resign — New e-mails released Tuesday show District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal sent and received racist jokes and strategized with political consultants and colleagues about his re-election campaign on his county e-mail account.

Discussion: Brains and Eggs, Grits for Breakfast, Bay Area Houston, Easter Lemming Liberal News and musings