memeorandum: BARACK'S ‘FAIRY TALE’ (Kenneth Lovett/New York Post)

9:15 AM ET, January 9, 2008

Top Items:

Clinton Escapes to Fight Another Day — MANCHESTER, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton is back. — With solid support from registered Democrats and the backing of women who deserted her in Iowa, Senator Clinton beat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a margin that — if not particularly wide …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Politico, MSNBC, ABCNEWS, Jules Crittenden, No More Mister Nice Blog, TalkLeft and The Democratic Daily

Washington Post:

N.Y. Senator Defies Polls, Edges Obama — As early returns showed a neck-and-neck race in the Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton prepared to proclaim herself the latest comeback candidate to emerge from New Hampshire after defying predictions that she would be swamped by Sen. Barack Obama.

Discussion: TalkLeft

Michael Calderone / The Politico:

After N.H., can the media come back? — Cable news pundits may have successfully predicted John McCain's victory in New Hampshire, but they sure had a lot of explaining to do around 10:30 p.m., once The Associated Press and MSNBC projected victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. — “The polls were so wrong.

Discussion: The Reaction, Time, American Street, The Gun Toting Liberal™ and The Peking Duck

Greg Veis / The Plank:

What We Can Learn From The Democratic Exit Polls — I've looked at the current Democratic exit polls, which, incidentally, are adjusted later to fit the final results, so what I have to say here must taken as subject to revision. What they show is that the pattern that held up earlier …

Discussion: Liberal Values, PrestoPundit and Spin Cycle

Ari Melber / The Huffington Post:
Inside Clinton's Narrow Comeback

Discussion: Shakespeare's Sister, skippy the bush kangaroo, The Democratic Daily and Salon

Jeff Zeleny / New York Times:
From a Big Boost for Obama to a Sharp Blow

Discussion: Captain's Quarters and Washington Post

Los Angeles Times:
Clinton, McCain win New Hampshire

Discussion: The Politico

Maureen Dowd / New York Times:

Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? — DERRY, N.H. — When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes. — A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad.

Discussion: protein wisdom, Shakespeare's Sister, Eschaton, Firedoglake, Taylor Marsh, Salon, Brilliant at Breakfast, Hot Air, Prairie Weather, Whiskey Fire, Rox Populi, ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES, TalkLeft and Politics

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:

Giuliani Sinks to Fourth in Florida — A new Datamar poll in Florida finds Mike Huckabee leading the Republican presidential primary race with 24% support, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Sen. John McCain at 18% and Rudy Giuliani now back in fourth place at 16%. — Two months ago, Giuliani led the GOP race.

Discussion: ABCNEWS, No More Mister Nice Blog, The Plank, The Moderate Voice, The Reaction, PoliGazette, Hotline On Call, Talking Points Memo, The Daily Dish and Hot Air

Hugh Hewitt / Townhall.com:

On To Michigan (and South Carolina, Nevada and Florida and 2/5) — Mitt Romney appeared on the program tonight after his second-place showing in New Hampshire. The transcript is here, and his analysis of how the race was compelling: … Romney's argument blows past the chattering classes working …

Discussion: Punditry and alicublog

The Politico:
N.H. opens path to nomination for McCain

Discussion: The Swamp, USA Today, Washington Post, MSNBC, TIME, The Daily Dish and No More Mister Nice Blog

Will / Attytood:

Is “Bradley effect” behind the Clinton surge? — Does Hillary Clinton's unexpectedly strong showing in New Hampshire tonight mean that the racially charged Bradley effect" is still hanging around in American politics? — The “Bradley effect” is the name that some political pundits gave …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Hullabaloo, Pandagon and Pam's House Blend

Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:

The Return Of The Bradley Effect? — It's one explanation for the big gap between the final polls and the result: … Tonight is the first primary - not a caucus. People get to vote in a secret ballot - not in front of their largely liberal peers, as in Iowa.

Discussion: The Campaign Spot, Wolf Howling, The Agonist, Matt Zeitlin and Best of Both Worlds

J-Walking:
Race, Polls, Obama

Discussion: Political Radar, The Huffington Post, Publius Endures, The Daily Dish, New York Magazine, MSNBC, Washington Wire, PolySigh and Pollster.com

Ed Morrissey / Captain's Quarters:

Did The Ronulans Disappear Overnight? — A funny thing happened on my way to the predictable onslaught of Ron Paul supporters in my comments section after yesterday's post about his newsletters. The onslaught never arrived — and neither did the supposed Revolution from New Hampshire.

Discussion: Reason Magazine, Fausta's blog and Easter Lemming Liberal News

Ron Paul 2008:
Press Releases › Ron Paul Statement on The New Republic …

The New Republic:
Selections From Ron Paul's Newsletters

Discussion: The People's Republic …, The Daily Dish, The Agitator, Publius Endures, Majikthise, Group News Blog, Political Machine, Liberal Values, Reason Magazine, Unqualified Offerings, KnoxViews, Gays & Lesbians for Ron Paul, Secular Blasphemy, YID With LID, Wake up America and Captain's Quarters

Kevin Drum / Washington Monthly:

HILLARY'S WIN....I have several reasons for being pleased with the results of tonight's Democratic primary: — I've made three electoral predictions so far: that the eventual candidates would be Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton and that Iowa would turn out not to be as important as everyone thought.

Discussion: Matthew Yglesias, Outside The Beltway and Buck Naked Politics

Rick Moran / Pajamas Media:
HILLARY CLINTON WINS, PUNDITS LOSE

Discussion: Publius Pundit

Daniel Gross / Slate:
WHY WERE THE POLITICAL FUTURES MARKETS SO WRONG ABOUT OBAMA AND CLINTON?

Discussion: The Big Picture, Open Left and JustOneMinute

Gary Langer / The Numbers:

New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco — There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

Discussion: Marc Ambinder, Pollster.com, Betsy's Page, Redstate, Soccer Dad and BizzyBlog

Brad Friedman / The BRAD BLOG:

NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Results Announced for Clinton/Obama — [UPDATED several times at end of article, and still developing with new updates...] — I'm not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight.

Discussion: Brilliant at Breakfast, THE LIBERAL JOURNAL and Right Wing News

Kenneth Lovett / New York Post:

BARACK'S ‘FAIRY TALE’ — BALLISTIC BUBBA BLASTS OBAMA — With his wife's campaign in free fall before last night's victory, former President Bill Clinton erupted at Sen. Barack Obama, lashing out at his campaign as “the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen.”

Discussion: JustOneMinute and The Moderate Voice

Matthew Yglesias:

How Wrong Were The Polls? — Commenter Brian makes an observation “No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results …

Discussion: MoJoBlog, Betsy's Page and Whiskey Fire

Slate:

INDIANA'S VOTER-ID LAW IS HARMFUL AND WORTHLESS. — This Wednesday, in the midst of an intense political primary season, the Supreme Court will hear a case that will say a lot about the kind of democracy America aspires to be. At issue is an Indiana law requiring registered voters to present …