memeorandum: McCAIN'S BASE PROBLEM....I'm not saying anything here that we … (Kevin Drum/Washington Monthly)

11:50 PM ET, January 29, 2008

Top Items:

Krooney / The Page:

THE “STOP ROMNEY” COALITION — Giuliani to endorse McCain Wednesday in California. — Now that the Sunshine has set, two old friends come to an understanding. — McCain topper Rick Davis quietly negotiated the agreement. — Giuliani, in Florida concession speech …

You Decide 08!:

MCCAIN TRIUMPHS IN HARD-FOUGHT FLORIDA PRIMARY — John McCain pulled out a win in a squeaker of a Republican presidential primary contest in Florida Tuesday, besting archrival Mitt Romney and leaving strong indications that Rudy Giuliani is preparing to abandon his race and back McCain.

Discussion: CNN, The Fix, Associated Press, MSNBC, Public Secrets, Reason Magazine, Balloon Juice, Stop The ACLU, Jules Crittenden, Pajamas Media, GINA COBB, Marc Ambinder and MiamiHerald.com

John Podhoretz / Commentary:

Ridiculous Early Analysis — If the Florida results remain as close as the exit polls make it appear, nothing is going to be resolved tonight on the Republican side with the frontrunners. If John McCain wins it by a point or two, he gets all the delegates and the headlines that he is the winner …

Discussion: Weekly Standard

New York Times:

For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall — Perhaps he was living an illusion all along. — Rudolph W. Giuliani's campaign for the Republican nomination for president took impressive wing last year, as the former mayor wove the pain experienced by his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and his leadership that followed into national celebrity.

Discussion: Political Radar, LiberalOasis, The Anonymous Liberal, Attytood and American Power

Associated Press:
Romney vows to carry on campaign

Discussion: AMERICAblog

John Hood / The Corner:
The Huck Factor — Looking at the exits, it seems clear …

Discussion: The XX Factor and The Gate

Allahpundit / Hot Air:
Results: Floridamania! …

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, Political Radar, The Jawa Report, HorseRaceBlog, Cameron's Corner, Daimnation! and Right Voices

Sara Just / Political Radar:
Giuliani to Drop Out, Endorse McCain

Discussion: TPM Election Central, Gateway Pundit and Outside The Beltway

The Campaign Spot:

First (?) Wave of Florida Exits, Revealed — The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent. — UPDATE: Interestingly a second source — yes, guardians of the exit poll data …

Discussion: The Trail, The Page, TownHall Blog, Hot Air, Wonkette, Gateway Pundit, Taylor Marsh, Stop The ACLU, The Strata-Sphere, My Two Sense, Balloon Juice and Sister Toldjah

Robert Perez / Orlando Sentinel:

Area voters in Florida Primary are reporting problems at polls — One voter was told by poll workers there was no Democratic primary today — On Florida Primary day, voters are reporting problems across Central Florida from Daytona Beach to Hunter's Creek.

Discussion: South Florida Sun-Sentinel, TalkLeft, The BRAD BLOG, Norwegianity, Wonkette and American Street

Associated Press:
Early FL exit poll highlights

Discussion: The Campaign Spot, Pollster.com, TIME, Riehl World View, Commentary and Hotline On Call

Paul Kiel / TPMmuckraker:
What Democratic Primary? — The Orlando Sentinel reports …

Discussion: D-Day

Rich Lowry / The Corner:
McCain 33, Romney 32? — That's what's going around as the early exits.

Discussion: The Field and Comments from Left Field

CNN:
Exit polls: Conservatives choose Romney over McCain

Discussion: The Swamp and DownWithTyranny!

New Hampshire Union Leader:

Hillary's word: It's worth nothing — COURTING VOTERS in Iowa and New Hampshire, last August Sen. Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to “campaign or participate” in the Michigan or Florida Democratic primaries. She participated in both primaries and is campaigning in Florida.

Discussion: The Campaign Spot, Marc Ambinder, The Opinionator, Captain's Quarters, Hot Air, Comments from Left Field, The American Mind, QandO, Political Machine, The Field, Punditry, Blue Crab Boulevard and UrbanGrounds

Frank James / The Swamp:
Clinton ‘wins’ Florida Democratic primary

Discussion: New York Times

Noam Scheiber / The New Republic:
Did Obama Hand the Clintons a Talking Point?

Discussion: Taylor Marsh and Democratic Strategist

The Corner:

It's All Over — Assuming there is no shocking revelation or health issue, the GOP nomination is over. Conservatives need to start practicing the phrase “Nominee presumptive John McCa....." — Sorry, I can't say it. Not yet. — But it's true. When the campaign comes here to Massachusetts …

Discussion: The Daily Dish, Matthew Yglesias, No More Mister Nice Blog, Commentary, Viking Pundit and Babalu Blog

Amanda / Think Progress:

Bush Issues Signing Statement On Defense Act, Waiving Ban On Permanent Bases In Iraq — President Bush yesterday signed the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act after initially rejecting Congress's first version because it would have allegedly opened the Iraqi government to “expensive lawsuits.”

Discussion: White House, Associated Press, Democrats.com, Daily Kos, Comments from Left Field, The Washington Independent and The Carpetbagger Report

Andrew Miga / Associated Press:

Lieberman Rules Out Running With McCain — WASHINGTON (AP) - Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent who nearly won the vice presidency as a Democrat in 2000, says there's no way he'll be Republican Sen. John McCain's running mate should McCain become the party's presidential nominee.

Discussion: Truthdig, Outside The Beltway and Say Anything

Kevin Drum / Washington Monthly:

McCAIN'S BASE PROBLEM....I'm not saying anything here that we don't already know, but the Florida exit polls confirm that John McCain has a big problem. As expected, he does well among independents and moderates, but also as expected, he does less well among Republicans and conservatives.

Discussion: Talking Points Memo

Ben Smith / Ben Smith's Blogs:

Obama: ‘El nos entiende’ — Obama's up with this spot in Arizona and California, starring Rep. Luis Gutierrez, Chicago's Hispanic congressman. — But there's a hint of more to come: It opens with a still of Teddy Kennedy. — Earlier Spanish-language spots tried to make an immigrant connection …

Discussion: DownWithTyranny! and Spin Cycle

Faiz / Think Progress:

Scarborough: McCain's Platform Is ‘Less Jobs And More Wars’ — During the coverage of this evening's Florida primary results, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough discussed the impact of John McCain's victory with Pat Buchanan. The Republican establishment will rally around McCain and say “he's the guy …

Discussion: The Daily Dish, Matthew Yglesias and democracyarsenal.org

Ari Shapiro / NPR:

Army Blocks Disability Paperwork Aid at Fort Drum — Listen Now — · Army officials in upstate New York instructed representatives from the Department of Veterans Affairs not to help disabled soldiers at Fort Drum Army base with their military disability paperwork last year.

Discussion: No More Mister Nice Blog, Whiskey Fire, Comments from Left Field, Blog entry and The Gate