MCCAIN TRIUMPHS IN HARD-FOUGHT FLORIDA PRIMARY  —  John McCain pulled out a win in a squeaker of a Republican presidential primary contest in Florida Tuesday, besting archrival Mitt Romney and leaving strong indications that Rudy Giuliani is preparing to abandon his race and back McCain.

The Huck Factor  —  Looking at the exits, it seems clear to me that if John McCain edges Mitt Romney tonight, it will be because of the effect of Mike Huckabee splitting the base conservative vote with Romney.  You can see it on the abortion questions, the church-going questions, and others.

For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall  —  Perhaps he was living an illusion all along.  —  Rudolph W. Giuliani's campaign for the Republican nomination for president took impressive wing last year, as the former mayor wove the pain experienced by his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and his leadership that followed into national celebrity.

Ridiculous Early Analysis  —  If the Florida results remain as close as the exit polls make it appear, nothing is going to be resolved tonight on the Republican side with the frontrunners.  If John McCain wins it by a point or two, he gets all the delegates and the headlines that he is the winner …

Exit polls: Conservatives choose Romney over McCain  —  (CNN) — John McCain has long had trouble courting the most conservative members of his party, and exit polls of Florida Republican primary voters show a sizeable number continue not to support him.  —  According to the exit polls …

First (?) Wave of Florida Exits, Revealed  —  The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.  —  UPDATE: Interestingly a second source — yes, guardians of the exit poll data …