memeorandum: Schneider: Conservatives seem split, Could be long night for Dems (CNN)

12:30 AM ET, February 6, 2008

Top Items:

The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report — I just got a big pile of exit poll data. — The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. — Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn't tell us that much, as we don't know what the district-by-district breakdown is.

Discussion: Open Left, MyDD, Dyre Portents, Salon, Hotline On Call, Comments from Left Field, Sister Toldjah, Talking Points Memo, THE LIBERAL JOURNAL, Wizbang, AMERICAblog and redblueamerica.com

Matt Stoller / Open Left:

Early Exit Poll Rumors — (See the Republican numbers here - promoted by Chris Bowers) — Here you go. I have no idea how reliable these are. — The Obama victories are bolded. If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today. — Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26 — Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45

Discussion: The Huffington Post, MoJoBlog, The Carpetbagger Report, HorsesAss.Org, the albany project, Raising Kaine and Pacific Views

The Campaign Spot:

Latest Exits Include One Massive ‘Wow.’ I Mean, ‘WOW.’ — Here's a later round of exits. It includes an absolute shocker that, I suspect, will have Hugh Hewitt jumping out of his chair... Arizona: McCain 36 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, TIME: Swampland, Wizbang, The Trail, PoliBlog (TM), Patterico's Pontifications, Comments from Left Field and AMERICAblog

CNN:

McCain pads lead, Democrats split delegates — (CNN) — Sen. John McCain was padding his lead in the race for Republican delegates, while Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were running fairly even on the Democratic side. — McCain claimed victory in New Jersey and New York, with 153 delegates between them.

Discussion: Reason Magazine, You Decide 08!, AlterNet.org, DownWithTyranny!, Shakespeare's Sister, Gristmill, The Reaction, Outside The Beltway, Zogby, Connecting.the.Dots, Balloon Juice, Salon, Cynics' Party, Comments from Left Field, MSNBC, Left in the West, Lonewacko and D-Day

CNN:

Schneider: Conservatives seem split, Could be long night for Dems — NEW YORK (CNN) — The first round of exit polls from Republican and Democratic primaries across the country are providing some early signs on what trends are at play, and how the night may go.

Discussion: The Politico, The Moderate Voice, ABCNEWS, The Swamp, Hullabaloo, D-Day, Taegan Goddard's … and The Field

Mitt Romney For President News:

Campaign Manager Beth Myers On The West Virginia Convention — FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE — Boston, MA - Today, Romney for President Campaign Manager Beth Myers issued the following statement regarding the outcome of West Virginia's Republican Party convention:

Marc Ambinder:

West Virginia Intrigue — After the first round of balloting in West Virginia, Mitt Romney was solidly in the lead with 41% of the votes, followed by Mike Huckabee with 33% and John McCain with 16%. — Since 50% is needed to win all 18 delegates, a second balloting is underway.

Discussion: DownWithTyranny!, Jonathan Martin's Blogs, Reuters, Booman Tribune, UrbanGrounds, Daily Kos, MyDD, TownHall Blog, D-Day and Examining Presidential …

Bryan / Hot Air:
Rush Limbaugh *endorses Mitt Romney

Discussion: TPM Election Central, Stop The ACLU, The Radio Equalizer, Bark Bark Woof Woof, Captain's Quarters, Confederate Yankee and The Reaction

Associated Press:
Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights

Discussion: The Campaign Spot and Riehl World View

The Campaign Spot:
Early Exit Polls in Massachusetts: Dems Close, Romney Up Big

Discussion: Pollster.com, Firedoglake and AMERICAblog

Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:

DEM EXITS, SECOND WAVE — These are the second wave exits. Not certain whether or not they're weighted. Assume they're not. — GA: C- 25.5, O - 75 — CT: C - 45, O - 52.2 — IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6 — AL: C - 37, O - 59.6 — DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6

Discussion: The Huffington Post, The New Republic, Democracy in America, Comments from Left Field, ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES and The Field

Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:

SUPER TUESDAY LIVE BLOGGING — We are live blogging tonight and posting the most recent estimates for each race derived from the official public exit poll tabulations as they are posted online. The table will update regularly (though you will need to reload the page to see updates) …

Discussion: Open Left, Left in the West, Democratic Strategist, Needlenose, The Field and Hotline On Call

Jennifer Parker / ABCNEWS:

Obama Overwhelmingly Wins Georgia Primary — Democratic White House Contenders Aim for Votes, Delegates in 22 States — In the first win of what is expected to be a long night, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., defeated Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in Georgia, a key Southern state …

Discussion: michellemalkin.com, Hot Air, Liberal Values, The Democratic Daily, positivelyBarack.com and Truthdig

Marc Ambinder:
A Note On Exit Polls

Discussion: Hotline On Call

Domenico Montanaro / MSNBC:

CLINTON ‘TALKING POINTS’ MEMO — From NBC's Mark Murray — The Clinton campaign just sent “talking points” to its national press list — the first time we believe they have done this. — TALKING POINTS — February 5, 2008 — SUPER TUESDAY TALKING POINTS — SUPER TUESDAY

Discussion: Spin Cycle

MSNBC:
Clinton, Obama split Super spoils

Discussion: The Moderate Voice and The Democratic Daily

Chris Cillizza / Live Coverage:
Clinton and Obama Trade Wins In Super Tuesday Showdown

Discussion: Hotline On Call

The Politico:

Berman's count: 606-534 — David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign's estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates. — “We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.

Discussion: Liberal Values, Hot Air, American Street, Attytood, The Strata-Sphere and Spin Cycle

Ari Melber / The Nation:
OBAMA CAMPAIGN PROJECTS 72 DELEGATE LEAD (FOR NOW)...

Discussion: All Spin Zone

Victor Davis Hanson / The Corner:

The Die Has Been Cast — Like many I prefer McCain but will gladly support Romney if he wins the nomination. His campaign ad here in California against Hillary's inexperience was excellent, and so was McCain's on his new views on illegal immigration. — But so far today I have gotten …

Discussion: Classical Values and The Daily Dish

Andy McCarthy / The Corner:
Re: The Die Has Been Cast

Discussion: TBogg

Ed Morrissey / Captain's Quarters:

The Coming Meltdown For The Democrats — Early in the race, Republicans appeared headed to a brokered convention. GOP primary voters couldn't decide on a front-runner, and it looked like three or even four candidates could make it to the national convention with significant numbers of delegates, touching off a floor fight.

Discussion: Open Left

Ben / Think Progress:

Anti-War Candidates Are Top Recipients Of '08 Donations From U.S. Troops — Conservatives opposed to redeployment in Iraq have consistently claimed that U.S. troops are on their side: … Yet U.S. troops disagree. Yesterday, the Center for Responsive Politics reported that members …

Discussion: Matthew Yglesias, OpenSecrets.org, The Carpetbagger Report, Comments from Left Field, Angry Bear and Political Punch