memeorandum: Super Tuesday Election Thread (Tom Bevan/TIME)

1:25 AM ET, February 6, 2008

Top Items:

The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report — I just got a big pile of exit poll data. — The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. — Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn't tell us that much, as we don't know what the district-by-district breakdown is.

Discussion: Pollster.com, Open Left, MyDD, Salon, Hotline On Call, Dyre Portents, Comments from Left Field, Sister Toldjah, Talking Points Memo, THE LIBERAL JOURNAL, Wizbang, AMERICAblog and redblueamerica.com

The Campaign Spot:

Latest Exits Include One Massive ‘Wow.’ I Mean, ‘WOW.’ — Here's a later round of exits. It includes an absolute shocker that, I suspect, will have Hugh Hewitt jumping out of his chair... Arizona: McCain 36 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, TIME: Swampland, Wizbang, PoliBlog (TM), The Trail, Patterico's Pontifications, Comments from Left Field and AMERICAblog

Matt Stoller / Open Left:

Early Exit Poll Rumors — (See the Republican numbers here - promoted by Chris Bowers) — Here you go. I have no idea how reliable these are. — The Obama victories are bolded. If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today. — Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26 — Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45

Discussion: The Huffington Post, The Carpetbagger Report, HorsesAss.Org, the albany project, Raising Kaine, MoJoBlog and Pacific Views

CNN:

Schneider: Conservatives seem split, Could be long night for Dems — NEW YORK (CNN) — The first round of exit polls from Republican and Democratic primaries across the country are providing some early signs on what trends are at play, and how the night may go.

Discussion: The Politico, ABCNEWS, The Swamp, The Moderate Voice, Hullabaloo, D-Day, Taegan Goddard's … and The Field

The Politico:

Berman's count: 606-534 — David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign's estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates. — “We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.

Discussion: protein wisdom, Hot Air, American Street, Attytood, The Strata-Sphere and Spin Cycle

Ari Melber / The Nation:

OBAMA CAMPAIGN PROJECTS 72 DELEGATE LEAD (FOR NOW)... Barack Obama's presidential campaign is claiming an early lead in pledged delegates for Super Tuesday. — In a media conference call at 10:30pm, Campaign Manager David Plouffe estimated that Obama leads Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates by 606 to 534.

Discussion: All Spin Zone

Domenico Montanaro / MSNBC:

CLINTON ‘TALKING POINTS’ MEMO — From NBC's Mark Murray — The Clinton campaign just sent “talking points” to its national press list — the first time we believe they have done this. — TALKING POINTS — February 5, 2008 — SUPER TUESDAY TALKING POINTS — SUPER TUESDAY

Discussion: Spin Cycle

CNN:

Clinton, McCain claim California, CNN projects — (CNN) — Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain will win California, Super Tuesday's biggest prize, CNN projects. — McCain padded his lead in the Republican presidential race, capped by taking California's 170 delegates.

MSNBC:

Clinton, Obama split spoils — Victory in largest state is biggest prize as Clinton takes most big states — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton greets supports as she enters her Super Tuesday primary night rally in New York. — Live video — LIVE MSNBC TV

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, Liberal Values, abu muqawama and The Democratic Daily

Marc Ambinder:
West Virginia Intrigue

Discussion: DownWithTyranny!, Jonathan Martin's Blogs, Reuters, Booman Tribune, UrbanGrounds, Daily Kos, MyDD, TownHall Blog, Examining Presidential … and D-Day

Mitt Romney For President News:
Campaign Manager Beth Myers On The West Virginia Convention

Chris Cillizza / Live Coverage:
Clinton And Obama Trade Victories in Super Tuesday Showdown

Discussion: Hotline On Call

Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:

DEM EXITS, SECOND WAVE — These are the second wave exits. Not certain whether or not they're weighted. Assume they're not. — GA: C- 25.5, O - 75 — CT: C - 45, O - 52.2 — IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6 — AL: C - 37, O - 59.6 — DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6

Discussion: Marc Ambinder, The Huffington Post, Comments from Left Field, ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES and The Field

Jennifer Parker / ABCNEWS:
Obama Overwhelmingly Wins Georgia Primary

Discussion: Hot Air, Liberal Values, The Democratic Daily, positivelyBarack.com and Truthdig

Jim Kuhnhenn / Associated Press:
Analysis: Clinton and Obama Start Anew

Discussion: The New Republic

Andy McCarthy / The Corner:

Re: The Die Has Been Cast — Remember the Clinton years? We should — we may be on the verge of reliving them. But I recall being most frustrated when some anti-Clinton zealot would claim the president had ordered an assassination or run cocaine through Mena Airport.

Discussion: TBogg

Victor Davis Hanson / The Corner:
The Die Has Been Cast

Discussion: The Daily Dish and Classical Values

Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:

SUPER TUESDAY LIVE BLOGGING — We are live blogging tonight and posting the most recent estimates for each race derived from the official public exit poll tabulations as they are posted online. The table will update regularly (though you will need to reload the page to see updates) …

Discussion: Open Left, Left in the West, Democratic Strategist, Needlenose, The Campaign Spot, The Field, Hotline On Call and AMERICAblog

Gallup:

Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008 — Based on daily polling from Feb. 2-4, 2008 — PRINCETON, NJ — Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain fairly closely matched in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, although Clinton appears to have stopped Obama's momentum over the past two days.

Discussion: Clive Crook, Comments from Left Field, The Washington Note and The Moderate Voice

Associated Press:
Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights

Discussion: The Campaign Spot, Riehl World View and Macsmind

Ed Morrissey / Captain's Quarters:

The Coming Meltdown For The Democrats — Early in the race, Republicans appeared headed to a brokered convention. GOP primary voters couldn't decide on a front-runner, and it looked like three or even four candidates could make it to the national convention with significant numbers of delegates, touching off a floor fight.

Bryan / Hot Air:

Rush Limbaugh *endorses Mitt Romney — Levin, Hannity, Ingraham and now Nobel nominee Rush Limbaugh (membership req'd): Big talk radio swings unanimously for Mitt Romney. Rush makes several solid points that you've heard before, mostly regarding how McCain represents the GOP's national security wing …