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8:15 PM ET, April 22, 2008

memeorandum

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The Campaign Spot:
On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?  —  Hold on to your hats.  I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources.  He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.
Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
LIVE BLOGGING PENNSYLVANIA EXIT POLLS AND VOTE RETURNS  —  I will be live-blogging here starting very soon on what the exit polls will have to tell us about the exit polls.  More details to follow, but please feel free to use this as an open-thread on what is appearing on the net and elsewhere on the exit polls.
Brendan Loy / Irish Trojan in Tennessee:
Don't trust the unweighted exit polls!  —  Following up on a point I made yesterday — in a post that just got Instalanched — as we political junkies giddily await the first hints of what's happening in Pennsylvania today (finally, another primary!! election results tonight!! exit polls!!! …
Julie Bosman / The Caucus:
Heavy Turnout in Pa.  —  Pennsylvania is on its way to the record turnout that election officials have been predicting for weeks, according to poll workers from across the state.  —  Election officials were reporting extremely heavy voter activity in many of the state's 67 counties throughout the morning …
Marc Ambinder:
Exit Polls: Change And Polarization  —  From the folks at CBS News, a look at the early exit polls:  —  The exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders — 23% — than in previous states.  The economy mattered most to 54% of voters.  (TV news reports say that Clinton won these folks.)
CBS News:
Clinton, Obama Down To The Wire In Pa.  —  Exit Polls: 23 Percent Decided Within Last Week; Polls Close At 8 P.M. ET As 6-Week Battle Comes To A Close  —  (CBS/AP) Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama collided Tuesday in the Pennsylvania primary, the last of the big-state contests …
Discussion: American Power
The Politico:
Five things to watch in Pennsylvania
Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:
EXITS: BEEN THERE, DONE THAT  —  As you may have noticed Drudge …
Discussion: AMERICAblog
Krooney / The Page:
EARLY EXIT POLLS EMERGE
Discussion: CNN, American Spectator and Spin Cycle
Mark Murray / MSNBC:
BILL: 'I'M NOT GOING TO PLAY YOUR GAMES'  —  From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and NBC's Mark Murray  —  At the Jewish Community Center in Pittsburgh this morning, Bill Clinton took questions from local press after shaking a lot of hands.  NBC/NJ asked him about the WHYY radio interview …
RELATED:
Susan Page / USA Today:
Bush's disapproval rating worst of any president in 70 years  —  WASHINGTON — President Bush has set a record he'd presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll.  —  In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday …
RELATED:
Gallup:
Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains National Lead  —  McCain competitive with both Democrats in general election  —  PRINCETON, NJ — As Democratic voters in Pennsylvania cast their presidential ballots today, the latest nationwide Gallup Poll Daily tracking results show Barack Obama with a 10 percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton.
Saira Anees / Political Punch:
Why Can't Obama Win Pennsylvania?  *  —  There's this presumption out there, it seems to me, as if it's just a CRAZY notion that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, would be able to win the Keystone State, like the idea is INSANE, just unfathomable, as if the state consists of Bill, Chelsea, and les freres Rodham.
RELATED:
Fernando Suarez / CBS News:
Clinton on Obama: “Why Can"t He Close the Deal?"
Discussion: The Page
Mark Halperin / The Page:
Obama Campaign Memo on Clinton's Pennsylvania Expectations
Discussion: TalkLeft
Marc Ambinder:
Expectations Memo: Clinton
Discussion: MyDD
New York Times:
Pennsylvania Voters Flood Polls After Long Battle  —  The Pennsylvania primary appeared too close to call on Tuesday night as the polls began closing, as Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton tried to stave off a stronger-than-expected showing by Senator Barack Obama on a potentially decisive night for the Democratic nominating contest.
RELATED:
Adam Nagourney / The Caucus:
In Pennsylvania, What Constitutes a Win?
Discussion: TalkLeft and Donklephant
Mike Tackett / The Swamp:
Clinton to go past Pennsylvania
Discussion: Hot Air and Stop The ACLU
Ross Douthat / The Current:
McCain's Peak?  —  Even with the Democratic Party locked in a fierce civil war, John McCain still hasn't pulled ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in national polls.  —  The Democratic primary campaign - divisive, bitter, and seemingly endless - has made many Republicans optimistic …
Discussion: The Corner, Hot Air and Media Blog
RELATED:
Josh Patashnik / The New Republic:
Mitt Romney Gets Dissed at the Supreme Court  —  The Court heard oral argument today in Davis v. FEC, the case that asks whether the so-called Millionaires' Amendment of the McCain-Feingold law unconstitutionally burdens the free-speech rights of self-financing candidates for office.
Discussion: ACSBlog and SCOTUSblog
Cernig / Newshoggers.com:
Basra - Iraqi Military Gives 24 Hour Ultimatum  —  It's duelling ultimatum time.  Following hard on Sadr's, the Iraqi military has issued one of its own. … That's not going to happen so the fight will re-start in earnest and will rapidly spread all across the Shiite South and into Baghdad.
Discussion: Attackerman
RELATED:
Associated Press:   Iraq military gives top Mahdi militia leaders in Basra 24 hours to surrender
Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
PENNSYLVANIA WRAP UP  —  We have been busy here over the last day or two, including links to 8 new polls that interviewed through Sunday night, so I am going to try use this post to wrap things up a bit.  All but one of the late surveys shows Clinton leading by margins of 5 to 13 points …
Sonny Bunch / Weekly Standard Blog:
Mugged by Reality...  The New York Times featured an intriguing profile of Robert Downey Jr. this Sunday.  Star of the upcoming Iron Man, Downey is best known as the most-wasted talent of his generation (both literally and figuratively).  His drug problems became so bad that he even spent …
Discussion: protein wisdom and Galley Slaves
 
 
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 More Items: 
Philly.com:
Great weather, big turnout as 8 p.m. nears
Discussion: The Page
Suffolk University:
Bellwether reflects poll prediction
Discussion: Firedoglake, Boston Globe and MyDD
Jamie McIntyre / CNN:
Gates chokes up among cadets
Discussion: Truthdig
siena.edu:
Not So ‘Blue’: McCain Closing Gap vs. Clinton & Obama
StrategyPage:
Al Qaeda Decapitated in Iraq
Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:
Touchy, Touchy  —  Ponnuru on Derbyshire:
Discussion: The Corner
Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:
THINGS ARE TOUGH ALL OVER  —  It turns out it's not just the …
Discussion: BBC
Washington Wire:
Carly Fiorina Gets a Plug for VP Job
 Earlier Items: 
Reuters:
New York Times is not for sale: Sulzberger Jr
Michelle Cottle / The New Republic:
Bob Herbert's Educational Rant
Matthew Yglesias:
Elitism  —  Progressive Media USA notes that if you're looking …
Robert / Jihad Watch:
New State Department lexicon forbids use of the words “jihad” or “jihadist”
Patrick Moore / Wall Street Journal:
Why I Left Greenpeace  —  In 1971 an environmental and antiwar ethic …
Haaretz:
UNIFIL finds Hezbollah arms; gunmen scatter peacekeepers
Charles Franklin / Pollster.com:
FRANKLIN'S FINAL PENNSYLVANIA UPDATES
Michael Scherer / Time:
A Willie Horton Hit on Obama?
Discussion: Salon and Hot Air
 

 
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Max Tani / @maxwelltani:
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Jack Dunn / Variety:
Trump appoints Mark Burnett, the British TV executive who created and produced the reality show The Apprentice, as a special envoy to the UK

Liz Pelly / Harper's:
How Spotify used its Perfect Fit Content program to rig its system against musicians, filling popular playlists with “ghost artists” to cut its royalty payouts

 
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