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10:25 PM ET, April 22, 2008

memeorandum

 Top Items: 
Gary Langer / ABCNEWS:
EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama  —  Preliminary Exit Polls Show Few Last-Minute Deciders in Pennsylvania Primary  —  Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds …
RELATED:
The Campaign Spot:
On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?  —  Hold on to your hats.  I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources.  He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.
Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
LIVE BLOGGING PENNSYLVANIA EXIT POLLS AND VOTE RETURNS  —  I will be live-blogging here starting very soon on what the exit polls will have to tell us about the exit polls.  More details to follow, but please feel free to use this as an open-thread on what is appearing on the net and elsewhere on the exit polls.
Brendan Loy / Irish Trojan in Tennessee:
Don't trust the unweighted exit polls!  —  [UPDATE, 8:12 PM: Welcome, new readers!  The scenario I predicted in this post is now happening.  Some leaked exit poll numbers show Obama winning, others Clinton leading by a slight margin.  Regardless, it's all meaningless.
Julie Bosman / The Caucus:
Heavy Turnout in Pa.  —  Pennsylvania is on its way to the record turnout that election officials have been predicting for weeks, according to poll workers from across the state.  —  Election officials were reporting extremely heavy voter activity in many of the state's 67 counties throughout the morning …
Marc Ambinder:
Exit Polls: Change And Polarization  —  From the folks at CBS News, a look at the early exit polls:  —  The exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders — 23% — than in previous states.  The economy mattered most to 54% of voters.  (TV news reports say that Clinton won these folks.)
CBS News:
Clinton, Obama Down To The Wire In Pa.  —  Exit Polls: 23 Percent Decided Within Last Week; Polls Close At 8 P.M. ET As 6-Week Battle Comes To A Close  —  (CBS/AP) Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama collided Tuesday in the Pennsylvania primary, the last of the big-state contests …
Discussion: Marc Ambinder and American Power
Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:
EXITS: BEEN THERE, DONE THAT  —  As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%.  I suspect they are ‘accurate’ as far as early, un-weighted exits can be.  But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early …
Discussion: AMERICAblog
CNN:
Exit polls: New voters boost Obama
Discussion: The Swamp
Krooney / The Page:
EXIT POLL RESULTS
Jennifer Parker / ABCNEWS:
Dems Fight On; Clinton Wins PA Primary  —  Despite Delegate Lead, Obama Can't Seem To Lock Up Democratic Nomination  —  Sen. Hillary Clinton has won the Pennsylvania primary vote as expected, ABC News has projected.  —  Clinton has led polls in the state, and her win now fuels questions …
RELATED:
Matthew Yglesias:
Popular Vote  —  Suppose Hillary Clinton wins a huge victory tonight and manages to pull ahead of Obama in the popular vote total.  I still don't see how that could possibly secure her the nomination as long as the national polling looks anything like this.
Discussion: The Opinionator
Gallup:
Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains National Lead
Adam Nagourney / The Caucus:
In Pennsylvania, What Constitutes a Win?
Discussion: TalkLeft and Donklephant
Domenico Montanaro / MSNBC:   AROUND IN CIRCLES?  —  From NBC's Ron Allen  —  Sen. Clinton …
Jonathan Chait / The New Republic:   Today's Primary Thoughts
Mark Halperin / The Page:
Obama Campaign Memo on Clinton's Pennsylvania Expectations
Discussion: TalkLeft and Political Machine
Ross Douthat / The Current:
McCain's Peak?  —  Even with the Democratic Party locked in a fierce civil war, John McCain still hasn't pulled ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in national polls.  —  The Democratic primary campaign - divisive, bitter, and seemingly endless - has made many Republicans optimistic …
RELATED:
National Review:
Novak: “McCain, Portman, and Victory” [Larry Kudlow]
Discussion: JustOneMinute and DownWithTyranny!
Bob Beckel / Real Clear Politics:
Why McCain Can't Win  —  For Sen. John McCain this is the best of times.
Discussion: Real Clear Politics
Mark Murray / MSNBC:
BILL: 'I'M NOT GOING TO PLAY YOUR GAMES'  —  From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and NBC's Mark Murray  —  At the Jewish Community Center in Pittsburgh this morning, Bill Clinton took questions from local press after shaking a lot of hands.  NBC/NJ asked him about the WHYY radio interview …
Josh Patashnik / The New Republic:
Mitt Romney Gets Dissed at the Supreme Court  —  The Court heard oral argument today in Davis v. FEC, the case that asks whether the so-called Millionaires' Amendment of the McCain-Feingold law unconstitutionally burdens the free-speech rights of self-financing candidates for office.
Discussion: Real Clear Politics
Marc Ambinder:
A Note On Pledged Delegates  —  As NBC's Chuck Todd points out tonight, Clinton's chances of winning the nomination based on pledged delegates is effectively over tonight.  —  If Obama keeps his pledged delegate lead to around 150, Clinton needs to win 70% of them on May 6 — and if not, 80% of them after May 6.
Discussion: Salon
Marc Ambinder:
Exits Suggest Obama Did Better In PA Than Ohio  —  From an Obama adviser:
Discussion: MyDD and Daily Kos
 
 
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David Freddoso / The Corner:
Mighty Casey has struck out
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Mugged by Reality...  The New York Times featured an intriguing profile …
Agence France Presse:
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Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:
PENNSYLVANIA WRAP UP
 

 
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