memeorandum: Trains on the Clinton Trail (Washington Wire)

6:35 PM ET, May 5, 2008

Top Items:

Poll: Obama clings to small lead over Clinton — RALEIGH (WTVD) — On the eve of the North Carolina Democratic Primary, with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes. — According to SurveyUSA's 8th and final tracking poll …

Discussion: Weekly Standard Blog and Public Policy Polling

Tom Jensen / Public Policy Polling:

Weighting our final NC Poll — Our final North Carolina poll will be released within the next few hours. A big decision for pollsters on this one is how to weight for race. 28% of the Democratic primary electorate in 2000 was black, and in 2004 it was 32%. But over 40% of early voters were.

Discussion: The Moderate Voice, TalkLeft, Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight.com

Gallup:

Gallup Daily: Democrats Tied for Record 12th Day — Obama's 5-point lead, 50% to 45%, is within poll's margin of error — PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama has a five percentage point edge over Hillary Clinton for the nomination among national Democrats, 50% to 45%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 2-4.

Discussion: American Power and Donklephant

Nate / FiveThirtyEight.com:

North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits — In Pennsylvania and Indiana, the previous times that we conducted this exercise, the results from our regression model were closely in line with the composite polling averages in those states. In North Carolina, however …

Discussion: The Politico, Pollster.com, CCPSBlog and The Field

Southern Political Report:
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey in North Carolina …

Discussion: Zogby, Hot Air and MyDD

Marie Horrigan / CQ Politics:
CQ Politics Forecasts a Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates

Discussion: TalkLeft

Ross Douthat:

Don't Do It, Bobby — Perhaps the most prescient piece I've ever written (it's a short list) was a column for the Wall Street Journal in June of '06, which urged Barack Obama to run for President - because, I argued, “in presidential politics, it's usually better to run too early than to wait …

Discussion: Reason Magazine, American Spectator and The Corner

William Kristol / New York Times:

McCain-Jindal? — Barack Obama said Friday, “We've had a rough couple of weeks.” Actually, he's had a rough couple of months. He's lost three big primaries to Hillary Clinton. And, should he hold on to win the nomination, he can no longer be considered a clear favorite over John McCain in the general election.

Yuval Levin / The Corner:
Jindal for VP? — Kathryn, Ramesh, and Ross Douthat are all cold …

Discussion: National Review and American Spectator

Ezra Klein / American Prospect:

THE STATE OF THE RACE. — This seems like a big deal. From The LA Times: … Though Obama seems more embattled than he did a month ago, the math is harder for Clinton to make up with every passing day. The uncommitted superdelegates are a particular class of superdelegates …

Discussion: Los Angeles Times, TalkLeft, The Carpetbagger Report and The Page

Wally Edge / Politicker MD:

Cryor, Dugas Glover to endorse Obama — State Democratic Party Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice Chairwoman Lauren Dugas Glover, both superdelegates, are endorsing Illinois Senator Barack Obama this afternoon, sources tell PolitickerMD.com. — Those close to Cryor have said he has been an Obama supporter …

Discussion: my.barackobama.com and MSNBC

Paul West / Baltimore Sun:

Meet Bill Clinton, man of the people — DUNN, N.C. - If Barack Obama wants to connect with white, working-class voters, he could take a lesson from William Jefferson Clinton. — The former president has been on tour for months, almost exclusively in small towns and rural county seats …

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs and Spin Cycle

Byron York / National Review:
Bill Clinton, Right Where He Oughta Be

Discussion: The Corner

Isaac Chotiner / The New Republic:
Bill Clinton Goes After TNR Alum!

Discussion: New York Times

Arianna Huffington / The Huffington Post:

What John McCain Told Me, and What it Says About How Far He's Fallen — At a dinner party in Los Angeles not long after the 2000 election, I was talking to a man and his wife, both prominent Republicans. The conversation soon turned to the new president. “I didn't vote for George Bush” the man confessed.

Discussion: Wonkette, Gawker, DownWithTyranny! and Progressive Media USA

Marcia Froelke Coburn / Chicago Magazine:

No Regrets — From our August 2001 issue: “Kill your parents!” urged sixties leftist Bill Ayers, whose father was the chairman of Commonwealth Edison here. In Ayers's new memoir, Fugitive Days, he reconciles his militant past with his present identity: father of three, esteemed professor at UIC …

Discussion: Wall Street Journal, NO QUARTER, NewsBusters.org, Marathon Pundit and michellemalkin.com

John Ruberry / Marathon Pundit:
Bill Ayers stepping on a US flag in 2001

Discussion: The Jawa Report, Power Line, baldilocks, The Strata-Sphere, Hot Air, Right Wing Nut House, BackyardConservative, Classical Values, Little Green Footballs, TownHall Blog, American Spectator, The Other McCain, The Campaign Spot, Macsmind and QandO

Glenn Reynolds / Instapundit.com:

The Glenn and Helen Show: Fred Thompson on John McCain and Judges — With Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still slugging it out in the Democratic primaries, John McCain has already cleared the way to the Republican nomination. He's spending his time laying out his positions for the general election …

Discussion: Jonathan Martin's Blogs, Marc Ambinder, Hot Air, Dr. Helen and The American Mind

Michael Yon / NY Daily News:

In Iraq, a storm before the calm — April saw 49 U.S. casualties in Iraq, the highest total in seven months. Does this mean, as some insist, that the enormous progress we have made since the start of the military surge is being lost? — As one who has spent nearly two years …

Discussion: The Jawa Report, Flopping Aces, Martini Revolution, Neptunus Lex, The Strata-Sphere, Done With Mirrors, QandO, Swampland, Dean's World and INSTAPUTZ

Blue Texan / Firedoglake: Michael Yon: More Americans Getting Killed In Iraq Means We're Winning

Matthew Yglesias:

Outback Strikes Back — Ezra Klein's right to bemoan the sneering condescension in this NYT piece on suburban chain restaurants. For me, this is made all the worse by the knowledge that the attitude of contempt is almost certainly fake. I was actually born and raised in Manhattan …

Discussion: bustardblog, Megan McArdle, Media Blog and All Spin Zone

Ezra Klein / American Prospect:
AND I'LL TAKE SOME CONTEMPT ON THE SIDE.

Discussion: JustOneMinute

Sam Harris / The Huffington Post:

Losing Our Spines to Save Our Necks — Geert Wilders, conservative Dutch politician and provocateur, has become the latest projectile in the world's most important culture war: the zero-sum conflict between civil society and traditional Islam. Wilders, who lives under perpetual armed guard due …

Discussion: Newshoggers.com and Hullabaloo

Kurt Andersen / New York Magazine:

About That Crush on Obama — If Barack is out of touch with America, then the media must be too. — People with the slightest interest in politics, especially journalists, spent 2006 and 2007 smacking their lips and rubbing their hands in anticipation of 2008, relishing the prospect …

Discussion: Washington Post, protein wisdom, marbury, The New Republic and Ed Driscoll.com

Stephanie Gaskell / NY Daily News:

Army big: Kerik was ‘a waste of time’ in Iraq — The former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq took aim at Bernard Kerik in an exclusive interview with the Daily News Sunday, calling his efforts to train Iraqi police in 2003 “a waste of time and effort.” — Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez …

Discussion: Think Progress, Washington Monthly, Spin Cycle, Early Warning and TPMMuckraker