memeorandum: Dept. of Enduring Myths (Jay Nordlinger/The Corner)

6:25 AM ET, November 3, 2008

Top Items:

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42% — Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day. — With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders' support is estimated to be:

Discussion: New York Times, Firedoglake, Minneapolis Star Tribune, TalkLeft, UPI, Political Byline, Associated Press, The Moderate Voice, The Raw Story, The Heretik, Gallup, Macsmind and Talking Points Memo

Gallup:

Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44% — Independents break for Obama, boosting Obama's broad Democratic base — PRINCETON, NJ — The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll — based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking — shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters.

Discussion: FiveThirtyEight.com, DownWithTyranny!, MyDD, Dirty Harry's Place and The Other McCain

Brian Montopoli / CBS News:

CBS Poll: Obama Maintains 13 Point Lead — With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

Discussion: TPM Election Central, AMERICAblog News, Spin Cycle, MyDD and CNN

Pew Research Center:
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days

Discussion: Marc Ambinder, About.com US Liberal Politics, TPM Election Central, The Moderate Voice, Liberal Values, Washington Wire, The Campaign Spot, Real Clear Politics, Zogby and Donklephant

Jennifer Agiesta / Washington Post:
WaPo-ABC Tracking: Advantage Obama

Discussion: The Numbers and TalkLeft

Scott Conroy / CBS News:

Palin Unleashes New Attack Against Obama On Coal — From CBS News' Scott Conroy: — (MARIETTA, OHIO) - Seizing on a newly released audio tape picked up by the Drudge Report, Sarah Palin took the opportunity here in coal country to accuse Barack Obama of “talking about bankrupting the coal industry.”

Discussion: Riehl World View, Dirty Harry's Place, American Street, Ed Driscoll.com, Don Surber, Gateway Pundit, Bob Cesca's Goddamn …, Right Wing Nut House, www.redstate.com, Political Byline, 24Ahead, BizzyBlog, Wake up America, Power Line and American Power

Peter Hamby / CNN:

Palin knocks Obama over months-old coal comments — MARIETTA, Ohio (CNN) - Campaigning in coal country just two days before the presidential election, Sarah Palin is highlighting an interview Barack Obama gave to the San Francisco Chronicle in January in which the Democrat suggested coal plants …

Discussion: NewsBusters.org, Dirty Harry's Place, Scared Monkeys and Wizbang

Chris Dickerson / West Virginia Record:

Coal official calls Obama comments ‘unbelievable’ — CHARLESTON - At least one state coal industry leader said he was shocked by comments Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama made earlier this year concerning his plan to aggressively charge polluters for carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.

Discussion: HillBuzz, Winds of Change.NET, NewsBusters.org, Macsmind, Democrat=Socialist, Doug Ross and Don Surber

Ed Morrissey / Hot Air:
Obama: I'll make energy prices “skyrocket”

Discussion: Ace of Spades HQ, Moonbattery, Political Byline, Soccer Dad, PoliGazette, Silent Running, The Other McCain, Sister Toldjah, QandO, Tapscott's Copy Desk, Gateway Pundit, Chicago Boyz and Flopping Aces

Michael James / Political Punch:
Republicans to Try Burning Obama on Coal

Discussion: The Jed Report, www.redstate.com, Wonk Room, Washington Wire, Bob Cesca's Goddamn …, Townhall.com, American Power, Dirty Harry's Place, Don Surber, Ben Smith's Blogs, Michelle Malkin, Patterico's Pontifications and media.newsbusters.org

Juliet Eilperin / Washington Post:
McCain in Pennsylvania: I'm a ‘Coal Booster’

Discussion: Weekly Standard, Hot Air, Top of the Ticket and DBKP

Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:

JOE THE SKINHEAD — When he was just the topic du jour because of his question to Barack Obama back in the neighborhood in Ohio, that was one thing. But “Joe the Plumber” is now actively campaigning with and for John McCain, appearing on stage with him at multiple events, etc.

Discussion: The Corner, The Heretik, Political Punch, Bark Bark Woof Woof, Pam's House Blend, Political Byline, Riehl World View and JammieWearingFool

Ali Frick / Think Progress:
McCain surrogate Joe the Plumber questions Obama's loyalty to the U.S.»

Discussion: Spin Cycle, 24Ahead and News Hounds

Brian Maloney / The Radio Equalizer:
Obama-Supporting KGO Libtalker Calls For Death Of Joe The Plumber

Discussion: The Other McCain, Mother, May I Sleep … and Gateway Pundit

Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias:

Myths and Realities — Jay Nordlinger writes at The Corner: … That may what “the evidence of [Nordlinger's] lived experience” says, but it would be strongly at odds with the historical pattern. Here's Andrew Gelman's map of voting patterns among the top third of the income distribution in 2004:

Discussion: Eschaton

Jay Nordlinger / The Corner:
Dept. of Enduring Myths

Discussion: Soccer Dad

John McCormack / Weekly Standard:

Dem. Congressman: “Let [Russia] Invade Georgia. It's Right Next to Them.” — At an event at a Boca Raton synagogue, Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) said that the United States should let Russia invade Georgia. Beginning at the 3:50 mark in the following YouTube video …

Discussion: www.redstate.com

Pamela Geller / Atlas Shrugs:
ATLAS EXCLUSIVE: JERROLD NADLER “OBAMA DIDN'T HAVE THE POLITICAL …

Discussion: The Corner, Weekly Standard, Political Punch, 24Ahead and Israpundit

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:

The Cellphone Effect, Continued — These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude. — The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not.

Discussion: The Heretik, Comments from Left Field, Taylor Marsh and Grasping Reality …

Paul Steinhauser / CNN:

Palin costing McCain, poll suggests — CNN Deputy Political Director — WASHINGTON (CNN) — A new national poll suggests Sarah Palin may be hurting Republican presidential nominee John McCain more than she's helping him. — A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice

Times of London:

How The Times followed a trail to find Barack Obama's aunt — The trail that led to “Aunt Zeituni”, the relative of Barack Obama who was traced by The Times last week, started with Mr Obama's memoir, one of the most widely read political autobiographies of all time.

Discussion: Sweetness & Light

Dschabner / Political Radar:

Obama Says He Is Against Same-Sex Marriage But Also Against Ending Its Practice In Calif. — ABC News' Teddy Davis, Sunlen Miller, Tahman Bradley, and Rigel Anderson report: Barack Obama's nuanced position on same-sex marriage is on full display in an MTV interview which is set to air on Monday.

Discussion: The Other McCain, Kausfiles, The Volokh Conspiracy, MTV, Wilshire & Washington, Pam's House Blend, TIME.com, Patterico's Pontifications and Petrelis Files

Jonathan Curley / Christian Science Monitor:

My wife made me canvas for Obama; here's what I learned — This election is not about major policies. It's about hope. … There has been a lot of speculation that Barack Obama might win the election due to his better “ground game” and superior campaign organization.

Frank James / The Swamp:

Palin misstates anti-Obama data source — COLUMBUS, Ohio — At Gov. Sarah Palin's Sunday rallies, she's earned big responses by repeating the line that an independent organization has found that Sen. Barack Obama's proposed policies “would destroy 6 million jobs over the next decade.”

Discussion: Minnesota Independent and The Moderate Voice

Hillary Clinton / NY Daily News:

The man for the moment: Hillary Clinton makes the case for Barack Obama — On Tuesday, New Yorkers and Americans have a big decision to make. Do we continue to pursue the policies of the past eight years or do we chart a new course? I believe we can and we must chart a new course led by President Barack Obama.

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs, Taylor Marsh, Real Clear Politics, TIME.com, The Raw Story and MSNBC

William Kristol / New York Times:

Hey Liberals, Don't Worry — Barack Obama will probably win the 2008 presidential election. If he does, we conservatives will greet the news with our usual resolute stoicism or cheerful fatalism. Being conservative means never being too surprised by disappointment. — But what if John McCain pulls off an upset?

Discussion: Bark Bark Woof Woof and TBogg