Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%  —  Independents break for Obama, boosting Obama's broad Democratic base  —  PRINCETON, NJ — The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll — based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking — shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters.

Unreadability in the defense of liberalism is no vice  —  Ed Driscoll writes:  —  When the MSM moans about the gallons of red ink it's spilled since 2001, it needs to ask itself if it's prepared to actually report the news, in a fashion that interests readers, or if it exists as a non-profit ideological support system.

The Republican Rump  —  Maybe the polls are wrong, and John McCain is about to pull off the biggest election upset in American history.  But right now the Democrats seem poised both to win the White House and to greatly expand their majorities in both houses of Congress.

JOE THE SKINHEAD  —  When he was just the topic du jour because of his question to Barack Obama back in the neighborhood in Ohio, that was one thing.  But “Joe the Plumber” is now actively campaigning with and for John McCain, appearing on stage with him at multiple events, etc.

How The Times followed a trail to find Barack Obama's aunt  —  The trail that led to “Aunt Zeituni”, the relative of Barack Obama who was traced by The Times last week, started with Mr Obama's memoir, one of the most widely read political autobiographies of all time.

Nadler Criticizes Obama's ‘Courage’  —  Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-NY, was down in Florida over the weekend, and one supposes that he thought he was helping Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., but it will ultimately be hard to make that case.  —  Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugged has posted some video …

Hey Liberals, Don't Worry  —  Barack Obama will probably win the 2008 presidential election.  If he does, we conservatives will greet the news with our usual resolute stoicism or cheerful fatalism.  Being conservative means never being too surprised by disappointment.  —  But what if John McCain pulls off an upset?

The Cellphone Effect, Continued  —  These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.  —  The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not.

Secretaries of state give Dem firewall  —  In anticipation of a photo-finish presidential election, Democrats have built an administrative firewall designed to protect their electoral interests in five of the most important battleground states.  —  The bulwark consists of control of secretary …

What A McCain Win Looks Like...  This was by far the most common McCain victory scenario, occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations this afternoon:  —  ...this would be a boring ol' map.  Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won.  McCain wins everything else.

Myths and Realities  —  Jay Nordlinger writes at The Corner: … That may what “the evidence of [Nordlinger's] lived experience” says, but it would be strongly at odds with the historical pattern.  Here's Andrew Gelman's map of voting patterns among the top third of the income distribution in 2004:

Obama Says He Is Against Same-Sex Marriage But Also Against Ending Its Practice In Calif.  —  ABC News' Teddy Davis, Sunlen Miller, Tahman Bradley, and Rigel Anderson report: Barack Obama's nuanced position on same-sex marriage is on full display in an MTV interview which is set to air on Monday.

U.S. Rejects G.M.'s Call for Help in a Merger  —  DETROIT — The Treasury Department has turned down a request by General Motors for up to $10 billion to help finance the automaker's possible merger with Chrysler, according to people close to the discussions.