memeorandum: NADER: I HAVE ONLY ONE WORD FOR YOU... From MSNBC.com's Bob Sullivan (Mark Murray/MSNBC)

8:10 PM ET, November 4, 2008

Top Items:

Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls — Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there. — 1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls.

Discussion: MyDD, The Hill's Blog Briefing Room, Weekly Standard, The Corner, Gawker, The Campaign Spot, Rasmussen Reports, The Daily Dish, Harry's Place, The Reaction, Liberal Values, Outside The Beltway, Say Anything, AMERICAblog News, Taylor Marsh, MoJoBlog and Guardian

Joe Lieberman / The Huffington Post:

Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results — (More exit polls coming soon. We explain why you shouldn't trust them below.) — The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004).

Discussion: Firedoglake, AfterDowningStreet.org and Taylor Marsh

Mark Blumenthal / Pollster.com:

Looking for Presidential Exit Polls? — Looking for leaked exit poll results from the Obama-McCain presidential race? Sorry to break the news, but until at least 5:00 p.m. today you are out of luck. — Following the 2004 election, when partial and misleading results leaked out at mid day …

Discussion: Weekly Standard, Hot Air, Comedy Central, Washington Post and Los Angeles Times

Tom Curry / MSNBC:
Exit poll data positive for Obama in Va., Ind.

Discussion: BlueOregon and Tales from the Trail

Marc Ambinder:
National Exit Poll Data....First Takes...

Discussion: Salon

Michelle Malkin:

Obama's civilian security force: Billy club-wielding security guards at Philly polls — Here's the vid of billy club-wielding “security” guards at the 1221 Fairmount Ave. polling place in Philly from Election Journal. Just as I suspected, these guys look like NBPP from the emblem on one of the “guard's” jackets.

Discussion: Election Journal, www.redstate.com, The Radio Equalizer, PoliGazette, Left in the West, Riehl World View and Moonbattery

Greg Sargent / TPM Election Central:

Obama Volunteer On Scene Disputes Fox News' Suggestions That Black Panthers Are Intimidating Voters — Fox News and other conservatives on the Web are pushing hard on the story that two black panthers may be intimidating voters at a polling place in north Philadelphia.

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, Making Light, News Hounds, Atlas Shrugs, Comedy Central, Brian Beutler, The RBC, Democrat=Socialist and The Washington Independent

Michelle Malkin:
Black Panther intimidation at the polls? …

Discussion: The Corner, Election Journal, The New Republic, The Moderate Voice, Stop The ACLU, Jackson Sun, NewsBusters.org, DownWithTyranny!, VOTE, Hyscience, Gateway Pundit, Wizbang, Weekly Standard and Wake up America

Steve Benen / Washington Monthly:
THERE IS NO ‘POLL WATCHER’ SCANDAL.... Apparently, according …

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs, The Moderate Voice, Guardian and Left in the West

Matt Lewis / Townhall.com:
Rush Limbaugh on Black Panthers Engaging in Voter Intimidation

Discussion: Marc Ambinder

Ed Morrissey / Hot Air:
Video: Black Panther poll intimidation in Pennsylvania?

Discussion: Michelle Malkin, GINA COBB, Political Byline and Gates of Vienna

Amanda Carpenter / Townhall.com:

A Repeat of 2004 Philly Voter Chaos, Fraud — GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in at least half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status. — A Pennsylvania judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers …

Discussion: Wall Street Journal, Power Line, www.redstate.com, www.redstate.com, At-Largely, PoliGazette, No More Mister Nice Blog, The Hill's Blog Briefing Room, Nice Deb, YID With LID, Think Progress, Comments from Left Field and Vodkapundit

Market Wire:

Republican National Committee Prepares for Computerized Voting Fraud Legal Battle — Forensicon, Inc., a Chicago-based computer forensics company, was contacted last Thursday by a security firm lining up vendors to assist the Republican National Committee with consulting related to potential allegations of computerized voter fraud.

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs

Ben Smith / Ben Smith's Blogs:
Poll problems and poll problem spin

Discussion: Macsmind

Attiyah Buford / NBC Philadelphia:
Voting Problems in Philly & South Jersey

Discussion: Fausta's Blog and Firedoglake

Skip / GraniteGrok:
BREAKING - POSSIBLE VOTER FRAUD IN NH!

Discussion: Hot Air, protein wisdom, Weekly Standard and Townhall.com

Washington Wire:
Ohio GOP Presents More Complaints About Election Official

Discussion: The Caucus

Marc Ambinder:

Minnesota “Closer?” — A reader writes:

Discussion: Power Line, City Pages, The Corner and Democracy in America

Peter Hamby / CNN:

Palin discusses her future — Gov. Sarah Palin cast her vote in Wasilla, Alaska and spoke to reporters about her future. (AP PHOTO) — WASILLA, Alaska (CNN) — Sarah Palin appeared calm and confident Tuesday morning during her brief sojourn to Wasilla, Alaska, where she greeted hometown supporters …

Discussion: Needlenose and Washington Monthly

City Room:

Tim Robbins Faces Mix-Up at Polling Place — The actor Tim Robbins, looked dejected and annoyed around 10:30 a.m., as he was sitting in a folding chair at the McBurney YMCA at 125 West 14th Street, one of the more than 1,300 polling places throughout New York City.

Discussion: Gawker, New York Magazine, The Daily Politics, A Blog For All and Gothamist

TMZ.com:
Tim Robbins Couldn't Vote — Cops Called

Discussion: Comedy Central and JammieWearingFool

David Remnick / New Yorker:

MR. AYERS'S NEIGHBORHOOD — Early this morning, the Obama family voted at the Beulah Shoesmith Elementary School, in Hyde Park. Long after they had gone, the lawn in front of the school was filled with reporters, mostly Europeans, filming voters. While I was talking to an eight-year-old kid dressed …

Satyam Khanna / Think Progress:

Lieberman: ‘I Fear’ That ‘America Will Not Survive’ If Democrats Get 60 Senate Seats — With the possibility that Democrats might soon gain a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has been openly flirting with thoughts of voting with his conservative colleagues.

Discussion: Firedoglake, Glenn Beck, Matthew Yglesias, The Hill's Blog Briefing Room, AlterNet.org and DownWithTyranny!

Seanmalstrom / Malstrom's Articles News:

Toast — I've checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages. And I can't get to anything resorting to ‘Sean Malstrom’ due to real life situations. Luckily I changed my career gears long ago. But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed.

Discussion: Gawker, Mother, May I Sleep …, Dean's World, QandO, Outside The Beltway, Classical Values, www.redstate.com and THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS

James Pethokoukis / US News:

The Latest From Inside McCain HQ — I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.

Discussion: PoliGazette and Gateway Pundit

Marc Ambinder:

An Obama “Urgent” E-mail — A New York City-based Obama home phonebanker who's been making calls through the MyBO.com hub to PA and VA says he just received this e-mail:

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:

Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189 — It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.

Discussion: Newsweek Blogs, Wonkette, The Field on the Narcosphere and THE DAILY BANTER.COM

Boyd Reed / eastside93's Blog:

I Didn't Vote For Obama Today — I have a confession to make. — I did not vote for Barack Obama today. — I've openly supported Obama since March. But I didn't vote for him today. — I wanted to vote for Ronald Woods. He was my algebra teacher at Clark Junior High in East St. Louis, IL.

Discussion: Crooks and Liars and Riehl World View

Ali Frick / Think Progress:

Fearful Conservatives Push New Talking Point: ‘This Is A Center-Right Country’ — Last Friday, Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer called the United States “the quintessential center-right country,” and wondered why it was “poised to reject” Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), “the quintessential center-right candidate.”

Discussion: Washington Monthly

HillBuzz:

Five Reasons Obama Lost This Election — We truly believe if all of us continue to work as hard as possible tonight and tomorrow in get-out-the-vote efforts, and if we control the Eeyores in our midst and prevent the Obamedia from depressing turnout in our ranks, that McCain/Palin …

Discussion: Comedy Central, The Heretik, Taylor Marsh and Nice Deb

Maureen Groppe / Indianapolis Star:

Vigo Co. bellweather of U.S. voting — TERRE HAUTE, Ind. — As Vigo County goes, so goes the nation. — The county has for decades most closely matched the national vote for president of any county in the country. — Vigo County politicos are used to the county being considered a bellwether.

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs and Newsweek Blogs

Bob Cusack / The Hill:

Schumer on Fox: Fairness Doctrine ‘fair and balanced’ — Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday defended the so-called Fairness Doctrine in an interview on Fox News, saying, “I think we should all be fair and balanced, don't you?” — Schumer's comments echo other Democrats' views …

Discussion: Michelle Malkin, Weekly Standard, Gateway Pundit, JustOneMinute, DownWithTyranny!, Moonbattery, The Daily Politics, LIKELIHOOD OF CONFUSION®, Sweetness & Light, Likelihood of Success and Dean's World

Ben Pershing / Washington Post:

Obama and McCain Split First States in Historic Contest — The first polls have begun to close in the contest to decide whether Barack Obama or John McCain will serve as the 44th president of the United States, marking the culmination of an historic campaign season that began …

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight.com:

Indiana... Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry — which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial. — Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42% — DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%

Discussion: Slog and Openers

Nora Ephron / The Huffington Post:

Thinking About Bill — As I listened to Sarah Palin's recent phone call with “Nikolas Sarkozy,” I couldn't help thinking about Bill Kristol. — I think about Bill Kristol far too much. I almost never used to. Before he began writing his Monday column in the New York Times, I rarely saw him on television.

Discussion: The Heretik

Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias:

Good Riddance — Today being the day America chooses a successor, it's worth reflecting for a moment on the abysmal leader we have right now. I think an issue like asking whether or not George W. Bush is the worst president we've ever had gets a little too imponderable considering the historical issues.

Discussion: Liberty Street, Brian Beutler and The Sideshow

Charles Mahtesian / The Politico:

25 key counties to watch tonight — In presidential elections, not all counties are created equal. — Generally, the counties that matter most are located in closely contested states, where they play a key role in determining the winner. Thus the most populous county in the U.S. …

Discussion: The Moderate Voice

Michael Crowley / The New Republic:

A GOTV Glitch For Obama? — A friend in the field for Obama passes on this tip: … Another friend working in Ohio chimes in: … “This is just not true,” an Obama campaign source responds. But the original tips come from people I know and trust, so I have to think something's awry.

Discussion: Ben Smith's Blogs