memeorandum: Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust (Nouriel Roubini/Financial Times)

7:10 AM ET, November 2, 2009

Top Items:

SCOZZAFAVA THROWS SUPPORT TO OWENS — Scozzafava released the following statement at 2 :06 p.m.: — I want to thank you for your support and friendship. Over the past 24 hours, I have had encouraging words sent to my family and me. Many of you have asked me whom you should support on Tuesday.

Tom Jensen / Public Policy Polling:

Hoffman leads big — Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District. — In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava.

Michelle Malkin:

How Scozzafava repays NRCC and RNC — Hey, how did that six-figure RNC donation to the NRCC plus $85,000 to the New York GOP plus nearly half-million-dollar investment in advertising and other independent expenditures on behalf of radical leftis Dede Scozzafava work out?

Discussion: American Spectator, TBogg, New York Magazine, Riehl World View, Hotline On Call, The Washington Independent and The Other McCain

Tom Jensen / Public Policy Polling:

More NY-23 mess — Man NY-23 is really a mess. — Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far: —In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal …

Discussion: Hot Air, National Review Online and Shot in the Dark

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

Three Big Questions in NY-23 — Let me declaim that the utterly fascinating special election in NY-23 has become nearly impossible to forecast. Special elections, with their low turnout, are intrinsically pretty difficult to predict. So are multi-candidate races.

Discussion: Another Black Conservative, Left Coast Rebel, Mediaite, No More Mister Nice Blog, The New Republic, Verum Serum and New York Magazine

Tony Romm / The Hill:

GOP nominee endorses Democrat after stepping aside under pressure from right — The Republican in a New York House race that has become a symbol of the divisions within the GOP endorsed her former Democratic rival Sunday, a sharp snub to the third-party conservative who forced her out of the race.

Discussion: The Swamp, The Politico, Riehl World View, Maggie's Farm and MyDD

Hotline On Call:

Scozzafava Manager Backs Hoffman — Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) may be crossing party lines to support atty Bill Owens (D), but her now ex-mgr Matt Burns isn't going along with that decision. “Dede is entitled to her own opinion, as is everyone, but I obviously disagree with her decision …

Discussion: Left Coast Rebel

Ed Morrissey / Hot Air:
Conference call with Hoffman campaign

Discussion: The Other McCain, Not One Red Cent and The Greenroom

Chris Cillizza / The Fix:
NY-23: Scozzafava Endorses Owens

Discussion: IntoxiNation, Stop The ACLU, Don Surber, The Daily Dish and TPM LiveWire

Tony Romm / The Hill:
Rep. Issa's PAC suggests Dems promised Scozzafava favors

Discussion: New York Times, The Huffington Post and YID With LID

Little Green Footballs:
Doug Hoffman: The Glenn Beck Candidate

Discussion: Stop The ACLU, The Jawa Report, Atlas Shrugs, Political Byline, 2.0, American Power and The Washington Independent

Ben Smith / Ben Smith's Blog:
Scozzafava endorses Democrat Owens

Discussion: American Thinker, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Commentary and Carol's Closet

Elizabeth Benjamin / The Daily Politics:
Scozzafava Comes Out For Owens

Discussion: Another Black Conservative, The washington times Blogs, Hot Air, Don Surber, Carol's Closet, And So it Goes in Shreveport, Winds of Change.NET, The Moderate Voice, protein wisdom and Wizbang

Josh Kraushaar / Scorecard's Blog: Scozzafava endorses Owens

Tom Jensen / Public Policy Polling:

Christie leads — Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%. — Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer …

Discussion: National Review Online and Blue Jersey

Joel Siegel / ABCNEWS:
Obama Rallies for N.J. Gov.: Is President's Image at Stake?

Discussion: The Politico and The Greenroom

Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias:

White Men Are Not Very Progressive — A nice map from dreaminonempty at Open Left illustrates the vote share won among white men in the 2008 presidential election: … I would say that another message is that progressive politics is badly disadvantaged by a situation in which the overwhelming majorities …

Discussion: J. Bradford DeLong's …

Dreaminonempty / Open Left:
2008 Electorate: Alternate History

Discussion: Alas, a blog

Nouriel Roubini / Financial Times:

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust — Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets - equities, oil, energy and commodity prices - a narrowing of high-yield and high-grade credit spreads, and an even bigger rally in emerging market asset classes (their stocks, bonds and currencies).

Discussion: The Money Game, protein wisdom and naked capitalism

Daniel Libit / The Politico:

The pro-Fox Democrats — Democratic pundit Bob Beckel has been under contract with Fox News for six years. And in the midst of the White House war against the cable network, some of his liberal friends think that's six years too many. — They invited him to lunch the other day for an intervention …

Discussion: RADAMISTO

RushLimbaugh.com:

Rush on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace — BEGIN TRANSCRIPT — WALLACE: Now to our interview with Rush Limbaugh. Whether you love him or can't stand him, he is a major player on the American political scene. For three hours a day, five days a week, he tells listeners exactly …

Discussion: RealClearPolitics Video Log, The Corner on National …, American Thinker and NewsBusters.org

The Huffington Post:
Fox Gives Rush Limbaugh 30 Minutes To Tee Off On Obama (VIDEO)

Discussion: Left Coast Rebel and Taylor Marsh

Bill Carter / New York Times:

DVR, Once TV's Mortal Foe, Helps Ratings — In what may seem a media business version of the Stockholm syndrome, television network executives have fallen in love with a former tormentor: the digital video recorder. — The reason is not simply that more households own DVRs …

Discussion: TVbytheNumbers and MoJo Blog Posts

William Voegeli / Los Angeles Times:

The Golden State isn't worth it — Our high-benefit/high-tax model no longer works, especially compared with low-tax states like Texas. — In America's federal system, some states, such as California, offer residents a “package deal” that bundles numerous and ambitious public benefits with the high taxes needed to pay for them.

Discussion: City Journal, Power Line and Maggie's Farm