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1:05 AM ET, January 19, 2010

memeorandum

 Top Items: 
Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:
538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite  —  The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG …
RELATED:
Mike Allen / The Politico:
Obama plans combative turn  —  President Barack Obama plans a combative response if, as White House aides fear, Democrats lose Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts, close advisers say.  —  “This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt …
David Catanese / The Politico:
New poll: Brown up 9  —  A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown surging to a 9-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.  —  According to the survey conducted Sunday evening …
New York Times:
Democrats May Seek to Push Health Bill Through House  —  WASHINGTON — The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders, scrambling for a backup plan to rescue their health care legislation if Republicans win the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday, have begun laying the groundwork …
Discussion: AMERICAblog News and AmSpecBlog
Allahpundit / Hot Air:
Good news: Obama to take “combative” approach to Brown victory  —  A follow-up to last week's video clip of The One promising to make the midterms a referendum on ObamaCare, which is working like gangbusters right now for Marcia or Marla or whatever her name is.
MyFox Boston:
Poll: Scott Brown surges to double-digit lead over Martha Coakley  —  BOSTON (FOX25, myfoxboston) - A poll released a day before the special Senate race shows Senator Scott Brown surging to a double-digit lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat.
Boston Globe:
Sen. Kerry says Scott Brown supporters engaged in bullying, threats  —  Brown greeting supporters on Main Street in North Andover.  Kerry says some supporters have gone too far.  —  By Martin Finucane, Globe Staff  —  Massachusetts Senator John F.Kerry is calling on Republican Scott Brown …
Steve Kornacki:
Coakley internals: +1, with a catch  —  There is a report that Martha Coakley's internals for Sunday night put her ahead by two points, 48 to 46 percent.  For what it's worth, my little birdie tells me that her Sunday night poll put her ahead by one point and that the three-night average for Friday …
The Note:
Pelosi: We Will Have Health Care - One Way Or Another  —  ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says Democrats will charge ahead with health care reform regardless of what happens in the Massachusetts Senate race.  —  “Let's remove all doubt, we will have health care …
Jim Hoft / Gateway Pundit:
AWESOME... Scott Brown Responds to Elitist Obama's Attack on Truck Owners  —  Republican Scott Brown has been running ads in Massachusetts where he is out driving around in his old pickup truck while campaigning for US Senator.  Brown released this ad on January 3.
Josh Marshall / Talking Points Memo:
Is There An X Factor?  —  It seems pretty clear now that the plan …
Joseph Curl / Washington Times:
Irish bookie pays off Brown bets early
Jane Hamsher / Firedoglake:
Should Dems Give the Money Back If They Don't Keep Their Public Option Pledge?
ABCNEWS:
U.S. Military Weapons Inscribed With Secret ‘Jesus’ Bible Codes  —  Pentagon Supplier for Rifle Sights Says It Has ‘Always’ Added New Testament References  —  Coded references to New Testament Bible passages about Jesus Christ are inscribed on high-powered rifle sights provided …
RELATED:
Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:
A Looming Landslide For Brown  —  Democrats can stop hoping at this point.  —  I can see no alternative scenario but a huge - staggeringly huge - victory for the FNC/RNC machine tomorrow.  They crafted a strategy of total oppositionism to anything Obama proposed a year ago.
Kevin Drum / Mother Jones:
Obama's Discontents  —  Bernard Avishai on the election in Massachusetts: … The frustration on the left with Obama — and with healthcare reform specifically — was almost inevitable.  During the campaign, a lot of people chose to see in him what they wanted to see …
Andrew Sullivan / The Daily Dish:
From Depression To Rage  —  We have heard a lot from those furious that Obama has not solved all our problems overnight, how they feel that this country has somehow been taken away from them, how they feel a disconnect from the president.  But maybe it's time for a different kind of rage …
Discussion: The Peking Duck
CBS News:
Poll: Most Don't Want Sarah Palin to Run for President  —  Posted by Kevin Hechtkopf A new CBS News poll finds that a large majority of Americans say they do not want former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to run for president.  —  Specifically, 71 percent say they do not want the former …
Discussion: Hot Air
 
 
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 More Items: 
Michael Barbaro / New York Times:
At a King Day Celebration, a Preview of a Gillibrand-Ford Primary
Paul / Power Line:
Defense department shows, rather than says, why the Fort Hood massacre occurred
Daily Mail:
DJ condemned for playing Van Halen's Jump as woman leaps from bridge
Discussion: The Moderate Voice
William A. Jacobson / Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion:
Brown Hometown Rally Tonight (Pics)
Discussion: Instapundit
Chicago Tribune:
Facebook group 'I'm With Coco' plans rally outside NBC Tower …
Discussion: The Huffington Post
 Earlier Items: 
Jeff Zelenyand Jackie Calmes / The Caucus:
Obama to Deliver State of the Union Address Jan. 27
David Saltonstall / NY Daily News:
Harold Ford, mulling an NY Senate run, says Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is ‘weak’
CNN:
Brown expects to head to DC quickly if he wins
Brian Faughnan / The Daily Caller:
Carville Poll: Only 1/3 of voters support Barack Obama's national health-care plan
Discussion: RedState and Hot Air
Scott Horton / Harper's:
The Guantánamo “Suicides”: A Camp Delta sergeant blows the whistle