memeorandum: Academics predict economy will drive a Romney victory (James Rainey/Los Angeles Times)

2:30 PM ET, August 23, 2012

Top Items:

Missouri Senate: McCaskill (D) 48%, Akin (R) 38% — What a difference one TV interview can make. Embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill has now jumped to a 10-point lead over her Republican challenger, Congressman Todd Akin, in Missouri's U.S. Senate race.

Mike Lillis / The Hill:

Team Obama breaks precedent to try to spoil Romney's convention in Tampa — Bucking protocol, President Obama and the Democrats are planning a full-scale assault on Republicans next week during their convention. — Presidential candidates have traditionally kept a low profile during …

Discussion: CNN, National Review, Taylor Marsh, Jammie Wearing Fools and Pirate's Cove

Greg Sargent / Washington Post:

The Morning Plum: The Obama campaign's theory of the presidential race — Should President Obama be trying to persuade voters that the economy is recovering? — Some Democratic strategists think that could jar against public perceptions that things aren't really getting better.

Discussion: Washington Monthly, American Prospect, The Maddow Blog, Brad DeLong, The Fix and Prairie Weather

Philip Klein / Washington Examiner:

Akin mess could be watershed moment for conservative movement … Missouri Rep. Todd Akin's insensitive and ignorant comments about rape and pregnancy could cost Republicans a majority in the Senate. But in time, the episode may be remembered as an important development for the conservative movement.

Discussion: Power Line, Mother Jones, Washington Monthly and A plain blog about politics

John Hinderaker / Power Line:

Are the Democrats Delusional On Abortion? — The Democrats apparently think they have hit the jackpot with Todd Akin's moment of stupidity, but I'm not so sure. How, exactly, are they going to take advantage of Akin's blunder? By talking ceaselessly about abortion.

Discussion: Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Ricochet Conversations Feed, The Gateway Pundit and Weekly Standard

Matt Higgins / CBS Tampa:

Mayor: ‘Absolutely Prepared To Call Off’ GOP Convention If Isaac Threatens Tampa — TAMPA (CBS Tampa/AP) — Tampa's mayor warns that the Republican National Convention could be canceled if Tropical Storm Isaac heads for the city. — Mayor Bob Buckhorn told CNN that he is more concerned …

Bill Clinton / CNN:
TRENDING: Clinton stars in new Obama ad

Discussion: Politico, Washington Free Beacon, Washington Wire, ABCNEWS, Outside the Beltway, Taylor Marsh and www2.timesdispatch.com

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post:
DNC's agenda — Sandra Fluke is now officially on the Obama …

Discussion: Hot Air, National Review and LifeNews.com

Katie Glueck / Politico:
RNC: We have plan for Isaac

Discussion: The PJ Tatler, Religion Dispatches, Riptide 2.0, Fausta's Blog and Towleroad News #gay

CNN:
Republicans say they'll nominate Romney, despite potential storm

Discussion: Election 2012

Kate Nocera / Politico:
Todd Akin in Tampa with top social conservatives

Discussion: afa.net, Ann Coulter, Ballot Box, rightwingwatch.org, Midwest Democracy, Hot Air and Election 2012

Ed Kilgore / Washington Monthly:
Do Conservatives Now Want Social Issues “Truce?” Let Them Go First.

Discussion: Mother Jones

Caitlin Huey-Burns / Real Clear Politics:
GOP Recasts Path to Senate Majority — Without Missouri

Discussion: Washington Monthly, About.com Conservative … and Power Line

CNN:
Agencies warn of possible anarchist activity at conventions

Discussion: Tampa Bay news …, The Buzz Florida Politics Feed, Politico, Business Insider and The Daily Caller

Deroy Murdock / National Review:
Akin: Face the Wrath of the GOP Convention

Discussion: Stinque, Mediaite, Conservatives4Palin and The New Civil Rights Movement

Dan Gilgoff / CNN:
Cardinal Dolan to offer closing prayer at Republican Convention

Discussion: Joe. My. God. and Towleroad News #gay

Paul Bedard / Washington Examiner:
Dem Convention becomes anti-Akin affair

Discussion: Politico, Nice Deb, Weekly Standard, The Gateway Pundit, Scared Monkeys, National Review, Instapundit, American Power, Althouse, ABCNEWS, CatholicVote.org, Power Line, Hot Air, The Lonely Conservative, Weasel Zippers and The PJ Tatler

New York Times:

Polls Say Medicare Is Key Issue in 3 Swing States — The Romney-Ryan proposal to reshape Medicare by giving future beneficiaries fixed amounts of money to buy health coverage is deeply unpopular in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, according to new polls that found that more likely voters …

Discussion: CBS News, Washington Wire, CNN, Daily Kos, Mother Jones, The Moderate Voice, The Caucus, ABCNEWS, The Future of Capitalism, Outside the Beltway, AEIdeas, Politico, USA Today, Election 2012 and The BLT

Quinnipiac University:

Ryan Micro-Bump In Florida, Wisconsin, But Not Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds — FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 46, compared to Obama 51 - 45 percent August 1 — OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44, unchanged from August 1 — WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 - 45 August 8

Discussion: Ballot Box, GOP 12, Washington Post, Firedoglake, Hotline On Call, The Fix, theGrio, USA Today, Post on Politics, First Read, Washington Examiner, Riptide 2.0, The Hinterland Gazette, Hugh Hewitt's TownHall Blog and FiveThirtyEight

Colby Itkowitz / Morning Call:

Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll: Paul Ryan doesn't move race in Pennsylvania — The first poll of Pennsylvania voters since Mitt Romney made Paul Ryan his running mate found the pick did nothing to move the race. — President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the lean-blue state …

Discussion: Politico, Taegan Goddard's … and Election 2012

CNN:
Romney, Obama tied up in three swing states

Discussion: ABCNEWS and The Caucus, more at Mediagazer »

John Cook / Gawker:

The Bain Files: Inside Mitt Romney's Tax-Dodging Cayman Schemes — Mitt Romney's $250 million fortune is largely a black hole: Aside from the meager and vague disclosures he has filed under federal and Massachusetts laws, and the two years of partial tax returns (one filed and another provisional) …

Discussion: Business Insider, The Hinterland Gazette, Little Green Footballs, Daily Kos, Balloon Juice, naked capitalism, Joe. My. God. and CBS DC

Daniel Strauss / The Hill:
Gawker posts 950 pages of confidential Bain documents

Discussion: Gawker, CNN and Salon

Pew Social & Demographic Trends:

The Lost Decade of the Middle Class — Fewer, Poorer, Gloomier — CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW — As the 2012 presidential candidates prepare their closing arguments to America's middle class, they are courting a group that has endured a lost decade for economic well-being.

Discussion: ThinkProgress, Business Insider, American Prospect, The Agonist, BBC, The Demos Blog, Connecting.the.Dots, Real Time Economics, Newsy and Economix

Rebecca Trounson / Los Angeles Times:
Eroding middle class falls to 51%, survey finds

Discussion: The Political Carnival, News Desk and Gawker

Justin Fishel / Fox News:

EXCLUSIVE: Bin Laden raid tell-all author revealed, questions raised whether ex-Navy SEALs have freedom of speech — The author of a recently announced insider account of the raid that killed Usama bin Laden has been identified to Fox News as a 36-year-old former Navy SEAL Team 6 member …

Discussion: BuzzFeed, ThinkProgress, Guardian, Wonkette, Business Insider, Gawker, Media Decoder and Politico, more at Mediagazer »

Daniel Halper / Weekly Standard:

Michelle Obama: ‘Get to the Polls on November the 2’ — Michelle Obama, speaking yesterday at a campaign event in Florida: … The presidential election this year is November 6.

Discussion: JustOneMinute, Weasel Zippers, The Daily Caller and Daily Pundit

Stephen Braun / Associated Press:

AP Exclusive: Energy loan watchdog an Obama donor — WASHINGTON (AP) — A veteran Wall Street executive who performed an independent review that exonerated the Obama administration's program of loans to energy companies contributed $52,500 to re-elect President Barack Obama in the months since completing …

Discussion: Michelle Malkin, Hot Air, protein wisdom and americanthinker.com

Eric Lipton / New York Times:
Ties to Obama Aided in Access for Big Utility

Discussion: American Power, The Jawa Report, The Lonely Conservative and Washington Free Beacon

Ta-Nehisi Coates / The Atlantic Online:

Fear of a Black President — As a candidate, Barack Obama said we needed to reckon with race and with America's original sin, slavery. But as our first black president, he has avoided mention of race almost entirely. In having to be “twice as good” and “half as black,” …

Discussion: The Other McCain

Byron York / Washington Examiner:

Obama: Team Romney coming on strong, playing dirty, time to ‘put them away’ — President Obama joined a group of former NBA stars at a fundraiser at New York's Lincoln Center Wednesday night. With Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, Walt Frazier, Bill Bradley and other basketball legends sitting nearby …

Discussion: CatholicVote.org and The Lonely Conservative

Devin Dwyer / ABCNEWS:
President Obama: Todd Akin ‘Somehow Missed Science Class’

Discussion: Guardian, The Raw Story, Election 2012, Politicker and Outside the Beltway

Mark Oppenheimer / New York Times:

Dan Savage and Brian Brown Debate Gay Marriage Over the Dinner Table — THE ancient Greek symposium, which combined drinking with elevated discussion, was often held in a private house; at Parisian salons, conversation frequently took place in the bedroom. Once upon a time …

Discussion: The Atlantic Online, Good As You, Gay Politics, ThinkProgress, Althouse, Towleroad News #gay, Advocate, Balloon Juice, Joe. My. God. and The New Civil Rights Movement

BuzzFeed:

What The Obama Campaign Is Thinking — An expanding electorate to counter Romney's cash, and while “media and ads mean less in the fall,” says an Obama aide at a background briefing. Middle class people will frame the podium in Charlotte. — Image by KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters

Discussion: Election 2012

Journalism.org:

THE MASTER CHARACTER NARRATIVES IN CAMPAIGN 2012 — PRESS COVERAGE OF THE CHARACTER OF THE CANDIDATES IS HIGHLY NEGATIVE, AND NEITHER OBAMA NOR ROMNEY HAS AN EDGE — On the eve of the conventions, the portrayal in the news media of the character and records of the two presidential contenders …

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, Politico, Election 2012, The Daily Beast and Poynter, more at Mediagazer »

Pema Levy / Talking Points Memo:

RNC Now Says Anti-Abortion Platform Doesn't Necessarily Disavow Rape Exemptions — The Republican Party platform committee's strict abortion plank might have flown under the radar if not for Rep. Todd Akin's explosive comments, which thrust a harsh light on the party's anti-abortion views this week.

Discussion: Politico, The Maddow Blog, The Raw Story and ABCNEWS