G.O.P. Gains Strength and Obama Gets Low Marks, Poll Finds  —  A New York Times/CBS News poll shows that President Obama's approval ratings are similar to those of President George W. Bush in 2006 when Democrats swept both houses of Congress in the midterm elections.

Islamic State video threatens to target White House and US troops  —  Video purports to be trailer for film entitled Flames of War with strapline ‘fighting has just begun’  —  Islamic State militants have threatened to target the White House and kill US troops in a new slickly made video response …

Jewish group brands Biden's Shylock comment ‘offensive’  —  Yahoo News 16 hrs ago  —  Vice President Joe Biden drew fire from a prominent Jewish group on Tuesday after he described unscrupulous bankers who prey on servicemen and servicewomen deployed overseas as “Shylocks” — a term frequently condemned as an anti-Semitic caricature.

Benghazi Select Committee Holding 1st Open Hearing  —  The House Select Committee on Benghazi gets its public debut Wednesday, two years after militants in the eastern Libyan city killed a U.S. ambassador and three other Americans, and four months after Republicans launched their special investigation.

How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works  —  The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model launched earlier this month.  Right now, it shows Republicans with about a 53 percent chance of picking up the Senate next year.  We owe you a lot more detail about how that forecast is calculated …

NRA goes big in key Senate, governor's races  —  The National Rifle Association has reserved $11.4 million for its initial fall advertising campaign and will begin airing its first TV commercials Wednesday in three Senate races crucial to determining which party controls the chamber next year.

Rubio: ISIS could be entering US from Mexico  —  Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said late Tuesday that ISIS militants could be crossing the Mexican border into the United States.  —  Asked by Fox News host Sean Hannity if ISIS “would use the southern border to cross,” Rubio said “Sure, potentially.”

Obamacare: From game-changer to background noise  —  A year ago, it looked like Obamacare was going to have a huge role in this year's elections.  And not in a good way — as a symbol of government incompetence and the Republicans' main case against President Barack Obama's record.

Another Look at Electoral Change  —  Last fall, I posted some data on the changes in Democratic and Republican support in the states in presidential elections, in part in response to observations made by a number of pundits and politicians that there is an increasing Democratic “lock” on the Electoral College.

The Disappearing “Undue Burden” Standard for Abortion Rights  —  Those words—"undue burden"—represent Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's most important triumph during her long and consequential tenure on the U.S. Supreme Court.  Almost single-handedly, O'Connor rewrote abortion law.

POLL: IN BIG SHIFT, BEAUPREZ POSTS 10-POINT LEAD ON HICKENLOOPER  —  Republican Bob Beauprez holds a 10-point lead against Gov. John Hickenlooper, according to a new poll, marking a major shift in a governor's race deadlocked for months.  —  The Quinnipiac University Poll, released Wednesday …

Boehner: ‘I have a few knuckleheads in my conference’  —  Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Tuesday said he has “a few knuckleheads” in his conference.  As a result, Boehner described his House majority as being a “paper majority.”  —  “On any given day, 16 of my members decide they're going to go this way …