memeorandum: The Economy Elects Presidents. Presidents Elect Congress. (Lynn Vavreck/New York Times)

3:05 PM ET, November 2, 2014

Top Items:

Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead — Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll, which buoys the GOP's hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate. — Ernst, a state senator and military leader …

Discussion: FiveThirtyEight, New York Times, CNN, Politico, The PJ Tatler, National Review, John Hawkins' Right Wing News, Hot Air, Power Line, Talking Points Memo, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Bloomberg Politics and Washington Free Beacon

Molly Ball / The Atlantic Online:

When Conspiracy Theories Don't Fit the Media Narrative — Joni Ernst is an Iowan, born and bred, an Operation Iraqi Freedom veteran, and the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa. She has also flirted seriously with wacky conspiracy theories, especially Agenda 21, which takes off from an innocuous …

Discussion: The Mahablog, FOX News Radio, No More Mister Nice Blog and Washington Post

Heather / Latest from Crooks and Liars:

Iowa Senate Candidate Ernst Won't Say If She'd Support McConnell As GOP Leader — GOP wingnut Iowa Senate candidate would not commit to voting for Mitch McConnell for leader if she wins her election and the GOP retakes the Senate. — Anyone think Chuck Todd will call this statement …

Discussion: Liberaland

Burgess Everett / Politico:

Reid: Senate hinges on Iowa — If Democrats lose Iowa? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid says. AP Photo — Close — If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.

Discussion: CNN, The Moderate Voice, New York Times, Washington Post, Scared Monkeys, FOX News Radio, Viking Pundit, Booman Tribune, Clayton Cramer and Des Moines Register

Nate Cohn / New York Times:

Why 2014 Isn't as Good as It Seems for the Republicans — The Republicans are looking forward to having a good week. They are favored to win the Senate, and they could pick up enough House seats to finish with their largest margin since 1928. — But perhaps more important …

Discussion: Prairie Weather, RedState, Taylor Marsh and Althouse

Vicki Needham / The Hill:

Five things that would change in a Republican-led Senate — The midterm-election horserace is into its final furlong — and that means most of the attention of the political world is focused, understandably, on who's up and who's down; who will win and who will lose.

Discussion: Prairie Weather

Mike Zapler / Politico:
The final sprint — In Kentucky, Democrats were crying foul …

Discussion: Courier-Journal, The Daily Liberal Blast, The Moderate Voice, The Rothenberg Political …, Liberal Values and Talking Points Memo

Bernie Becker / The Hill:

I barred Netanyahu from State Dept., Baker says — James Baker, a former secretary of State, didn't seem troubled during an interview on Sunday by recent anonymous comments from Obama administration officials knocking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

Discussion: Israel Matzav, Little Green Footballs and Algemeiner.com

Jason Plautz / The Atlantic Online:

The Climate-Change Solution No One Will Talk About — The equation seems fairly simple: The more the world's population rises, the greater the strain on dwindling resources and the greater the impact on the environment. — The solution? Well, that's a little trickier to talk about.

Josh Feldman / Mediaite:

ISIS Pitches to the Hosts of Shark Tank on SNL — SNL did a Shark Tank parody tonight with a twist: the hosts got a pitch from none other than representatives of ISIS. Yes, the ISIS you're thinking of. And these terrorists, one of them played by host Chris Rock, explained why the hosts …

Lynn Vavreck / New York Times:

The Economy Elects Presidents. Presidents Elect Congress. — In 1992, Bill Clinton's strategist, James Carville, made famous a presidential campaign mantra: It's “the economy, stupid.” He meant that presidential election outcomes are tied to the nation's economic conditions, something that should not surprise many people.

Dan Vergano / Reuters:

Will Virgin Galactic's Crash End Space Tourism? — The crash of Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo experimental space plane on Friday, which killed one test pilot and severely injured another, may have wrecked the future of space tourism. — “For the industry, the joyride is over,” …

Discussion: Hot Air, Outside the Beltway, NPR, Popular Mechanics and Mediaite

Tina Nguyen / Mediaite:

McCain Defends Palin: Coverage of Family Brawl Is ‘Biased,’ ‘Unfair’ — With all the news Sarah Palin's been making these days, what with her family's infamous brawl and all, it's natural to turn to her creator for his thoughts, and thus did KTVK sit down with Senator John McCain (R-AZ).

Dennis Welch / KASW-TV:
McCain speaks about Palin family brawl

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, Raw Story and Liberaland

Michael Wells Jr / PoliticusUSA:

Minority Voter Suppression In North Carolina Witnessed Firsthand — It is harder to vote in North Carolina these days. On June 25, 2013, the Supreme Court, in Shelby v. Holder, gutted a landmark provision of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. A majority of the justices struck down Article 5 of the Act …

Discussion: Hot Air and FOX News Radio