memeorandum: Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate (Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight)

7:25 PM ET, November 4, 2014

Top Items:

Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate — After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast, which is principally based …

New York Times:

What to Watch For as G.O.P. Expects Big Night at Polls — WASHINGTON — It is a recipe for sensory overload: Election returns will start flooding every device and screen Tuesday evening, capturing the outcomes of 36 governors' contests, the battle for control of the Senate …

Discussion: Wall Street Journal, CANNONFIRE, The Hugh Hewitt Show, ThinkProgress and FOX News Radio

David Brooks / New York Times:

Death by Data — Over the past decade or so, political campaigns have become more scientific. Campaign consultants use sophisticated data to micro-target specific demographic slices. Consultants select their ad buys more precisely because they know which political niche is watching which TV show.

Discussion: Washington Monthly and Diane Ravitch's blog

Patrick Howley / The Daily Caller:

BOMBSHELL MEMO: Jeanne Shaheen Conspired With White House Insider On IRS Targeting Scandal — Democratic New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen was principally involved in a plot with Lois Lerner and President Barack Obama's political appointee at the IRS to lead a program of harassment …

Discussion: his vorpal sword, John Hawkins' Right Wing News, The PJ Tatler, The Gateway Pundit, Truth Revolt and Power Line

Matthew Boyle / BREITBART.COM:
REPORT: ELECTION-EVE BOMBSHELL MEMO EMBROILS JEANNE SHAHEEN IN IRS TARGETING SCANDAL

Discussion: Scared Monkeys and Bloomberg Politics

Daniel Halper / Weekly Standard:

Biden Blows Greg Orman's Cover: He ‘Will Be With Us’ — Vice President Joe Biden blew Kansas independent Greg Orman's cover in a radio interview today. Orman hasn't stated which party he'll caucus with in the Senate—actively avoiding announcing whether he'll be with Republicans or Democrats …

Discussion: Hot Air, Ed Driscoll and The Last Refuge

Sabato's Crystal Ball:
The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks

Discussion: The PJ Tatler, Fox News, Washington Monthly, Business Insider, Scared Monkeys, The Daily Caller, First Draft and American Spectator

Robert Costa / Washington Post:
In e-mail to Dole, Orman explains the difference between a ‘clown’ and ‘clown car’

Discussion: Betsy's Page, Washington Monthly, Booman Tribune, Hot Air, Althouse and Washington Free Beacon

Chicago Sun Times:

Calls to election judges a ‘serious attempt to disrupt’ voting — A barrage of automated phone calls offering false instructions to scores of election judges was “a serious attempt to disrupt” Chicago voting operations in the run-up to Tuesday's vote, elections officials said.

Caitlin MacNeal / Talking Points Memo: Chicago Election Judges Receive Robocalls With False Instructions

TIME:

Lena Dunham: ‘I Do Not Condone Any Kind of Abuse’ — In an exclusive statement to TIME, the author addresses recent controversy over a passage in her book, Not That Kind of Girl, regarding her relationship with her younger sister — I am dismayed over the recent interpretation of events described in my book Not That Kind of Girl.

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Don Surber, Mediaite, Althouse, Truth Revolt and The PJ Tatler

Stephanie Ando / myfox8.com:

Burlington man eating Olive Garden every day, twice a day for seven weeks — BURLINGTON, N.C. — A Burlington man has used his “Never Ending Pasta Pass” from Olive Garden to eat 95 meals over the last six weeks. — Alan Martin bought it for $100 and he says he's gotten $1,510 worth of food so far.

Discussion: FOX31 Denver, Jezebel, KFOR-TV, FOX40, fox13now.com, New York Magazine, Gawker and SBNation.com

WAVY-TV:

Va. Beach, Newport News report voting machine calibration issues — VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (WAVY) — The Virginia Department of Elections has confirmed technical difficulties with the calibration of some touch-screen voting machines in Virginia Beach and Newport News, Tuesday.

Discussion: Hot Air, Watchdog.org, Daily Signal, Washington Free Beacon, The Gateway Pundit and The Daily Caller

Scott Rigell / HAMPTON ROADS NEWS:
Voting problems now reported at 43 precincts

Discussion: National Review

msnbc.com:

Problems reported at polls vary from state to state — HOUSTON — Voters in Connecticut, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Alabama and other states all encountered potentially serious problems casting ballots as Americans went to the polls Tuesday. — The issues included malfunctioning machines …

Discussion: Washington Post, The BRAD BLOG, Bloomberg Politics and Feeds

Josh Rogin / The Daily Beast:

Coach K: Obama Is a Bad Coach in the ISIS War — The legendary Duke coach said Obama is foolishly telling ISIS what the U.S. team will or won't do - a bad strategy in both war and basketball. — Barack Obama is a bad coach in the U.S. military war against ISIS, according …

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, USA Today, Mashable, Washington Free Beacon, New York Magazine and SBNation.com

Paul Bond / Hollywood Reporter:

Former CBS News Reporter Sharyl Attkisson Claims Existence of Obama Enemies' List — “I kind of assume I'm on a list. I don't think I'm the only one” — Sharyl Attkisson is an investigative journalist who became the story when she quit CBS News after two decades amid allegations …

Discussion: Mediaite, Washington Post, Talking Points Memo, Hit & Run, The Daily Caller and Rush Limbaugh

Justin Sink / The Hill:

Obama: Worst map since Eisenhower — Democrats are facing the worst midterm Senate map since President Dwight D. Eisenhower, President Obama bemoaned during an Election Day interview with a Connecticut radio station. — “There's no doubt that, when you look at the Senate races …

Discussion: Talking Points Memo and Washington Post

Wall Street Journal:

How to Lose, and Win, Graciously — If the president's party loses big on Tuesday, as appears likely, much of the loss will be due to 3 C's—competence, coherence and credibility. Competence: The administration has shown little talent for or focused interest in running the federal government well …

Discussion: Mediaite

David Ferguson / Raw Story:

Georgia Republican Secretary of State's voter info website abruptly crashes on Election Day — DON'T MISS STORIES. FOLLOW RAW STORY! — Voters looking for their polling place information before work on Tuesday were out of luck in the state of Georgia. The state's “My Voter Page” …

Discussion: CNN, The Moderate Voice, Daily Kos, Addicting Info, Political Insider blog and Liberaland

Jeffrey Rosen / The New Republic:

The Supreme Court Will Be a Disaster If a Justice Dies During a Republican Congress — On Friday, New York magazine's Jon Chait argued that the media has “wildly overstated the legislative importance of Republican Senate control” while at the same time understating its judicial importance.

Discussion: Power Line, Business Insider, The Atlantic Online, SCOTUSblog and Washington Post

Adam Taylor / Washington Post:

Map: The Africa without Ebola — Ebola is a frightening, unpredictable disease. Nearly 5,000 West Africans have died from the current outbreak with more than 13,000 people thought infected. — However, so far the problem remains largely limited to Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone.

Discussion: ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES

Nate Cohn / New York Times:

Exit Polls: Why They So Often Mislead — Did you think John Kerry was poised to win the presidency? That Scott Walker was close to losing the 2012 governor's recall election in Wisconsin? Do you believe that the black share of the electorate in North Carolina dropped to 23 percent in 2012, from 26 percent in 2004?

Discussion: Hot Air

David Ferguson / Raw Story:

Ferguson protester: No one can find the bullet police say they didn't fire into my head — DON'T MISS STORIES. FOLLOW RAW STORY! — A Florissant, Missouri woman says that police in Ferguson shot her in the head while she was leaving a rally supporting slain teen Michael Brown.

Discussion: Addicting Info and Balloon Juice

David K. Li / Page Six:

Is Angelina Jolie ready to run for office? — She has won an Oscar and regularly conquers the box office — so how hard could winning an election be? — Globe-trotting Hollywood do-gooder Angelina Jolie hints in a new interview that she's ready to enter politics.

Discussion: Vanity Fair, Talking Points Memo, Truth Revolt, Business Insider and FOX News Radio

Brendan James / Talking Points Memo:

Jon Stewart Didn't Vote Today (VIDEO) — Jon Stewart may have covered every bizarre moment of this year's midterm election, but he didn't cast a vote in it. — The host of “The Daily Show” told CNN's Christiane Amanpour during an interview on Tuesday that he had abstained this year.

Discussion: Jezebel

Rebecca Fishbein / Gothamist:

Video: OITNB's Big Boo Takes On M Train Preacher — Litchfield Penitentiary's resident double-crosser's better known for trying to seduce bible thumpers than out-preach them, but it looks like IRL Big Boo's got other ideas—this morning, Orange Is The New Black star Lea DeLaria had some choice words …

Discussion: Mashable, Jezebel and New York Magazine

Ben Domenech / The Federalist:

This Was An Election About A Failed Presidency — As President Obama watches the returns this evening, it will be with the building resentment of an executive closer to the end than the beginning. From Politico's profile of the president at the second midterm: