memeorandum: Nate Silver: Polls are failing us (Dylan Byers/Politico)

10:55 AM ET, May 8, 2015

Top Items:

Dylan Byers / Politico:

Nate Silver: Polls are failing us — Nate Silver fared terribly in Thursday's UK election: In his pre-election forecast, he gave 278 seats to Conservatives and 267 to Labour. Shortly after midnight, he was forecasting 272 seats for Conservatives and 271 for Labour.

Discussion: Hot Air and Althouse

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

The World May Have A Polling Problem — It's becoming increasingly clear that pre-election polls underestimated how well Conservatives would do and overestimated Labour's result. The BBC's exit poll was one early sign. But we're now seeing Conservatives outperform their poll-based projections …

Discussion: The Reaction, New York Times, Guardian, Betsy's Page, Reuters and Taylor Marsh

New York Times:

David Cameron and Conservatives Get Majority in British Election — LONDON — Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservatives won a resounding victory in the British general election, with nearly complete results on Friday showing that the party had secured an overall majority in Parliament.

Discussion: Fox News, Daily Mail, Mediaite, Western Journalism, Outside the Beltway and Reuters

BBC:
Election 2015: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority

Discussion: Guardian, Scared Monkeys, Washington Post, Reuters, Hit & Run, Political Wire, Taylor Marsh, NPR, Power Line and Seanet

P. J. O'Rourke / The Daily Beast:
Limey Liars & the Country That Doesn't Love Them

Discussion: RedState

Brendan Bordelon / National Review:

How Five Republicans Let Congress Keep Its Fraudulent Obamacare Subsidies — Health-care experts call it D.C. insiderism at its worst. — The rumors began trickling in about a week before the scheduled vote on April 23: Republican leadership was quietly pushing senators to pull support …

Discussion: Instapundit, Hot Air and Power Line

Alex Roarty / National Journal:

Why Jeb Bush Can't Spend His Way to the Win — The GOP presidential primary is on course to be flooded with super PAC money. But in 2016, candidates will need more than a little dough to win over voters. — The GOP could have a dozen deep-pocketed presidential contenders …

James Hohmann / Politico:

Insiders say Bush shouldn't ignore Iowa — His poor poll numbers there, they say, are mostly caused by a lack of attention to the Hawkeye State thus far. — Jeb Bush's failure to invest time in Iowa is the main explanation for his seventh-place finish in the latest poll of likely Republican caucusgoers.

Discussion: Booman Tribune

Jeremy W. Peters / New York Times:

Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, Senators Both, Lead Republican Attacks on Congress — WASHINGTON — His voice exuding disgust, Jeb Bush could have been describing a blistering rash. — “I'm not a United States senator — thank God,” he told a ballroom full of people here the other day.

Jonathan Easley / The Hill:
Walker hits bump in '16 race

Discussion: Washington Monthly, Hot Air, Liberaland, Washington Post, OnPolitics, RedState and Politico

Manu Raju / Politico:
GOP consultant on hot seat over Rand Paul attack

Discussion: RedState

Noelle Knox / POLITICO:

10 take-aways from the UK elections — What a breathless, barmy time this is. The exit polls made monkeys of us all, which was a fitting way for these Neanderthal elections to conclude. There is no silence more delicious than that of a political class gobsmacked into speechlessness.

Discussion: Towleroad News #gay

Guardian:
Ed Miliband resigns as Labour leader

Discussion: Associated Press, The Week and Shakesville

Lucia Mutikani / Reuters:

Job growth regains steam, keeping Fed rate hike on track — U.S. job growth rebounded last month and the unemployment rate dropped to a near seven-year low of 5.4 percent, signs of a pick-up in economic momentum that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates this year.

Discussion: Hot Air and Balloon Juice

Nelson D. Schwartz / New York Times:
U.S. Economy Added 223,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment Rate at 5.4%

Discussion: ThinkProgress, Guardian, NPR, The Week and The Atlantic

Sara Murray / CNN:

Jeb: George W. Bush is a top foreign policy adviser — Washington (CNN)Jeb Bush cited his brother, former President George W. Bush, as one of his main advisers on the Middle East in a private meeting in Manhattan on Tuesday, according to three people who attended the off-the-record event.

Discussion: Lawyers, Guns & Money, Daily Kos, Eclectablog and The Week

Washington Post:
One of Jeb Bush's top advisers on Israel: George W. Bush

Discussion: Salon, New York Times, Talking Points Memo, Hot Air, Mediaite, The Week, The American Conservative, Business Insider and No More Mister Nice Blog

Michael E. Miller / Washington Post:

‘Shawshank’ prison escape ends 56 years later with cinematic stakeout — A man convicted of manslaughter who escaped from an Ohio prison farm in 1959 was arrested in Florida Monday. But a friend says she hopes 79-year-old Frank Freshwater won't be sentenced. (AP)

Economist:

The dawn of artificial intelligence — Powerful computers will reshape humanity's future. How to ensure the promise outweighs the perils — From the print edition — “THE development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” Stephen Hawking warns.

Discussion: Shot in the Dark

Sahil Kapur / Bloomberg Business:

How A Ragtag Group Of Lefties Mainlined Debt-Free College Into The Democratic Primary — A group of two dozen young activists working out of homes and coffee shops around the country has achieved something rather unusual: mainlining an idea into the upper echelons of the Democratic Party …

Discussion: Washington Post

Al Weaver / The Daily Caller:

Ben Carson Returns To Baltimore, Questions Indictment Of Freddie Gray Officers — BALTIMORE, Md. — He's been in the 2016 race for a mere three days, but Dr. Ben Carson returned to Baltimore for the first time Thursday following the riots that consumed the city much of the past two weeks after the death of Freddie Gray.

Discussion: Raw Story, CNN, BizPac Review, Mediaite, ThinkProgress and Baltimore Sun

Katie Glueck / Politico:

Lindsey Graham looking at June 1 to announce White House run, sources say — The announcement would likely take place in South Carolina, possibly near his home base of Seneca — Lindsey Graham is telling donors that June 1 is the likely date for his presidential announcement …

Discussion: USA Today, The Week and Business Insider

Dylan Byers / Politico:
The media's real role in 2016

Discussion: CNN, Balloon Juice and Wall Street Journal

Ramesh Ponnuru / Bloomberg View:
Hillary Clinton, Immigration Extremist

Discussion: Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Bloomberg Business and Mediaite

Meghan Barr / Associated Press:

Activist: No regrets about cartoon contest ended by gunfire — 6 photos — NEW YORK (AP) — Does Pamela Geller regret organizing the Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest that ended in gunfire? — No, she says confidently. In fact, she says, she probably saved lives by hosting the event …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Gateway Pundit, NPR, Ed Driscoll and Pamela Geller, Atlas Shrugs

Andrew Kaczynski / BuzzFeed:
Peter King: Pam Geller Event Put “People's Lives At Risk For No Good Reason”

Discussion: Mediaite, Talking Points Memo and Washington Monthly

Politico:

NSA ruling puts lawmakers on edge — Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell spar over the future of the National Security Agency's phone-data collection program after it was ruled illegal. — A court ruling against the National Security Agency's phone data collection Thursday sparked a war …

Discussion: National Journal, Bloomberg View, American Civil Liberties Union, Hullabaloo and The Hill