memeorandum: It's Cruz, not Trump, who looks more like the favorite to win GOP primary (Chris Cillizza/Washington Post)

9:45 AM ET, December 14, 2015

Top Items:

Carrie Dann / NBC News:

NBC Poll: Clinton Would Trounce Trump But Lose to Rubio, Carson — Hillary Clinton would defeat Ted Cruz and trounce Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head general election matchup, but she would lose to Marco Rubio or Ben Carson, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds.

Discussion: Politico, Bloomberg Business, Washington Post, Hot Air, Business Insider, Members, New York Times and Talking Points Memo

Joshua Green / Bloomberg Business:

Cruz Poised to Steal Even More Trump Supporters in Iowa — The crosstabs of the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll reveal some encouraging findings for the Texas senator. — JoshuaGreen — Ted Cruz shot to a 10-point lead over Donald Trump in the latest Bloomberg …

Discussion: ABC News, Members, Guardian, Independent Journal and Politico

Tom Hamburger / Washington Post:

Cruz campaign credits psychological data and analytics for its rising success — URBANDALE, Iowa — As Cecil Stinemetz walked up to a gray clapboard house in suburban Des Moines last week wearing his “Cruz 2016” cap, a program on his iPhone was determining what kind of person would answer the door.

Discussion: The Daily Caller, The Week and Althouse

Nomiki Konst / The Hill:

Ted Cruz isn't just surging — he's winning — Every show has an end. Just like “The Apprentice” — gripping the first few few seasons, tired and contrived in the last — Donald Trump's campaign is aging toward death, one reckless outburst at at time. Although the casual political junkie …

Discussion: Des Moines Register, FiveThirtyEight and Outside the Beltway

Eli Stokols / Politico:

GOP contenders prep for loud, ugly holiday season — When the Republican National Committee pushed the Iowa caucuses out a month to Feb. 1, it seemed like the good people of Iowa and New Hampshire might get to enjoy the holiday season and a short respite from presidential politics. — Goodbye to all that.

Janet Hook / Wall Street Journal:
Trump, Cruz Lead GOP Field; Support for Carson Plummets, Poll Finds

Discussion: Politico, The Daily Beast, Vox, Common Dreams, Spectator and Washington Post

Brian Ross / ABC News:

Ex-Official: Secret Policy Kept Social Media Out of Visa Vetting

Discussion: Erick on the Radio

Vicki Needham / The Hill:

Report: Calif. attacker's posts went unnoticed during screening — Tashfeen Malik cleared an extensive immigration vetting for a U.S. visa even though she was already opening discussing her support for terrorism on social media, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

Discussion: Washington Post, JustOneMinute, RedState and Independent Journal

Elizabeth Kolbert / New Yorker:

The Siege of Miami — The city of Miami Beach floods on such a predictable basis that if, out of curiosity or sheer perversity, a person wants to she can plan a visit to coincide with an inundation. Knowing the tides would be high around the time of the “super blood moon,” in late September …

Michael Safi / Guardian:

Sydney woman found cash ‘meant for Islamic State’ in son's shorts — Youth granted immunity to testify against two men accused of handing him US$9,000 to transfer to Isis accounts in September last year — A Sydney youth, who was allegedly given US$9,000 to send to Islamic State …

Discussion: ABC and abc13.com

Sylvan Lane / The Hill:

Rubio is still insured under Obamacare: report — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is one of the Affordable Care Act's staunchest opponents. He's also one of its highest-profile beneficiaries. — Rubio enrolled his family in health insurance through the Washington, D.C., exchange in 2013 …

Travis Gettys / Raw Story:

'Libtard'-hating ex-police chief accused of pointing gun at woman who passed his Hummer — DON'T MISS STORIES. FOLLOW RAW STORY! — A former Pennsylvania police chief infamous for his profane video rants — punctuated by gunfire — against “libtards” has been arrested on harassment and terrorist threat charges.

Discussion: alan.com

Paul Mirengoff / Power Line:

Diversity: Seven notes — Scott's six notes on “mismatch” add a much needed clarity to the discussion of race-based preferential admissions to college. I want to add seven notes on the concept of diversity, which Scott discussed. — Note 1: The ideology of diversity is, as Scott says, relatively new.

Elliot Smilowitz / The Hill:

Rand Paul may end campaign if he misses debate cut — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Saturday indicated he may end his White House bid if he does not end up in the main stage of CNN's GOP presidential debate on Tuesday. — “We will make an announcement, on that, on Tuesday,” …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Week, John Hawkins' Right Wing News and Mediaite