memeorandum: Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved? (Numbers/Pew Research Center)

3:10 PM ET, January 7, 2016

Top Items:

Andrew Kaczynski / BuzzFeed:

John McCain: “I Don't Know” If Cruz Is Eligible For Presidency With Canadian Birth — McCain, the Republican nominee in 2008, was born in the Panama Canal Zone when it was a U.S. territory. — Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images — w.soundcloud.com — Arizona Sen. John McCain …

Discussion: Little Green Footballs, Vox, New York Times, American Spectator, Washington Post, NBC News, addictinginfo.org, Talking Points Memo, Hot Air and Daily Kos

Rich Lowry / Politico:

Ted Cruz Is Nixon, Not Goldwater — The lazy conventional wisdom is that Ted Cruz is the new Barry Goldwater doomed to suffer an electoral landslide defeat should he win the Republican nomination. — Not only is this wrong about Cruz's general-election chances, it may compare Cruz to the wrong 20th-century Republican forebear.

Discussion: The Hill, Political Wire, Rush Limbaugh, No More Mister Nice Blog, The Resurgent and New York Times

Andrew McCarthy / National Review:

Ted Cruz, Natural Born Citizen — Senator Ted Cruz is wise to laugh off Donald Trump's intimation that his constitutional qualifications to serve as president may be debatable. — The suggestion is sufficiently frivolous that even Trump, who is apt to utter most anything that pops into his head …

Discussion: Breitbart, Mother Jones, Associated Press, Washington Post, The Daily Caller, Mediaite, Power Line, CNN, The Hill and New York Times

Jennifer Hansler / ABC News:
Donald Trump Wants Ted Cruz to ‘Go Before a Judge’ About His Citizenship

Discussion: Politico, Associated Press, Yahoo Politics, addictinginfo.org, abc13.com, neo-neocon, The Hill, Hot Air and Daily Mail

A.B. Stoddard / The Hill: Cruz's path to victory

Reid J. Epstein / Wall Street Journal:
Ethanol Backers Mobilize Against Ted Cruz in Iowa Republican Race

Discussion: Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Hot Air and Des Moines Register

Andrew Kaczynski / BuzzFeed:
Rand Paul Says He's Not Sure If Ted Cruz Is Eligible To Be President

Discussion: Washington Post, US News, CNN, The Texas Tribune, Instapundit, Bloomberg Business, Hot Air and Talking Points Memo

Justin Huggler / Telegraph:

Suspects in Cologne sex attacks ‘claimed to be Syrian refugees’ — Leaked police report claims senior police officers feared fatalities and that one of those involved in attacks told officers: “I am Syrian. You have to treat me kindly. Mrs Merkel invited me”

Discussion: The Atlantic, neo-neocon, BBC, Breitbart, National Review, Power Line, Hot Air, Guardian, Spectator, John Hawkins' Right Wing News, Instapundit and Daily Mail

Spiegel Online:

Police Report Outlines ‘Chaotic and Shameful’ New Year's Eve — An internal police protocol has revealed the full extent of the violence in Cologne on New Year's Eve. According to the report, which SPIEGEL has seen, officials were overwhelmed and powerless to help some people calling for help.

Discussion: Washington Post, The Daily Caller and Jihad Watch

BBC:
Cologne sex attacks ‘require police rethink’

Discussion: Mediaite, Above the Law, Truth Revolt and The Daily Caller

The Hill:

Bill Clinton rape accuser: Hillary ‘tried to silence’ me — A woman who publicly accused former President Bill Clinton of raping her in 1978 is resurrecting her claims on social media. — “I was 35 years old when Bill Clinton, Ark. Attorney General raped me,” Juanita Broaddrick tweeted Wednesday.

Discussion: Politico, Progressives Today, ABC News, The Daily Caller, American Spectator, Vox, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion and BizPac Review

Karen Tumulty / Washington Post:

The Bill Clinton scandal machine revs back up and takes aim at his wife — The ghosts of the 1990s have returned to confront Hillary Clinton, released from the vault by Donald Trump and revved up by a 21st-century version of the scandal machine that almost destroyed her husband's presidency.

Discussion: The Atlantic, RedState, USA Today, Washington Free Beacon and Althouse

Bradford Richardson / The Hill:
Christie: If Rubio were nominee, Hillary would ‘cut his heart out’

Discussion: Washington Post

Molly Ball / The Atlantic:

The Pugnacious, Relentless Progressive Party That Wants to Remake America … At a recent private dinner in Manhattan, a small group of leftists plotted to take over America. — The group, a dozen community organizers and activists from all over the country, had convened at a sushi restaurant …

Discussion: Washington Monthly

Eliza Collins / Politico:

Rubio mocks media coverage of his boots: ‘This is craziness’ — Marco Rubio thinks the media frenzy over his trendy high-heeled boots is a troubling example of “where we are as a country,” but that doesn't mean he's taking them off the trail for good. — “Let me get this right.

Discussion: ABC News, New York Times and Washington Post

Daily Mail:
Marco walks tall! Rubio channels Nicolas Sarkozy and wears some well-heeled boots while campaigning in New Hampshire

Discussion: USA Today, New York Times and Washington Post

Lindsay Gibbs / ThinkProgress:

After Horrific Rape Charges, Tennessee High School Cancels Basketball Season — Three basketball players at Ooltewah High School in Tennessee have been charged with the aggravated rape and assault of a 15-year-old freshman teammate on December 21. — Now, as the investigation …

Discussion: timesfreepress.com, Raw Story and all

Beth Reinhard / Wall Street Journal:

Hank Greenberg Gives $10 Million to Super PAC Backing Jeb Bush — Contribution to Right to Rise USA marks milestone in unprecedented flow of money in the 2016 presidential election — WASHINGTON— Maurice R. “Hank” Greenberg, who built American International Group Inc …

Discussion: CNN, Bloomberg Business and Politico

Kyle Mantyla / Right Wing Watch:

A Dejected Mike Huckabee Is Now Just Burning Bridges With The Religious Right — Mike Huckabee has made no secret of his disappointment in fact that Religious Right leaders have failed to rally around his presidential campaign, with many of them instead backing Ted Cruz.

Discussion: Raw Story, Fox News, addictinginfo.org and Joe.My.God.

Alexander Bolton / The Hill:

Veepstakes cloud Senate GOP hopes of preserving majority — The Republican imperative to put together a strong White House ticket is butting up against the party's dream of preserving the Senate GOP majority. — Republican strategists say Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Kelly Ayotte …

Discussion: The Week

CNN:

Man with cleaver killed by Paris police on anniversary of Charlie Hebdo attacks — Deadly shooting outside Paris police station — Police kill man with cleaver after he tried to enter a northern Paris police station, officials say — (CNN)Police shot and killed a man wielding …

Discussion: The Gateway Pundit, The Daily Caller, American Spectator, The Week and Scared Monkeys

Katie Pavlich / Townhall.com:

Email Shows CNN's Invite Only Gun Control “Town Hall” With Obama is a Total Sham — Following his executive actions this week, President Obama will participate in what CNN is calling a “town hall” style discussion about gun control at George Mason University tomorrow night.

Discussion: Bearing Arms

Chris Geidner / BuzzFeed:

Alabama Governor's Office Sues Obama Administration Over Refugee Resettlement — President Obama shakes hands with Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley upon arrival in Birmingham, Alabama, on March 26, 2015. — Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty Images — Alabama officials entered the legal fray …

Sarah Pulliam Bailey / Washington Post:

New charges allege religious leader, who has ties to the Duggars, sexually abused women — Ten women on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against Bill Gothard, who for decades was a major force in the conservative Christian homeschooling movement, charging him and leaders in his ministry with sexual abuse, harassment and cover-up.

Discussion: Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, Gawker and Homeschoolers Anonymous

Andrew Restuccia / Politico:

NOAA: U.S. posts second-hottest year on record — The United States posted its second-hottest year on record in 2015, government scientists reported Thursday, extending the streak of warmer-than-average annual temperatures. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration …

Discussion: naked capitalism and The Week

Howie Carr / Boston Herald:

RINOs Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie chasing fool's gold — It's a shootout in the lifeboat — the Republicans in Name Only (RINO) lifeboat. — All the also-rans in the GOP presidential field are firing wildly at one another, trying to grab that coveted fourth-place finish in Iowa and

Discussion: The Jawa Report, Hot Air and The Resurgent

Mark Hensch / The Hill:

George Zimmerman rips Obama's ‘crocodile tears’ on guns — George Zimmerman is accusing President Obama of insincerity for weeping over mass shooting victims one day ago. — “He made an announcement and I could think when I saw it was crocodile tears,” Zimmerman, who shot and killed a black teenager in 2012, told TMZ.

Discussion: Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo and TMZ.com

Numbers / Pew Research Center:

Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved? — Evidence from the 2014 U.S. House elections — In recent years, polling has missed the mark in several high-profile elections, drawing particular attention to the difficulties inherent in using surveys to predict election outcomes.

Discussion: Washington Post and New York Times

Marco Rubio / USA Today:

Convention can restore limited government — Our republic is under siege by the Washington establishment in both parties. — America was built on the revolutionary idea that our rights come from God, not from government. To protect those rights, our founders created a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Discussion: ThinkProgress, Washington Monthly and Washington Post

Des Moines Register:

Last Slide — Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson at a campaign rally with 500 people in Cedar Rapids shouted out to a fifth-grade class: “Who's the worst student?” — Carson's question, intended as a joke in an anecdote about how he felt in elementary school …

Discussion: Politico, Talking Points Memo, Mashable, Daily Kos and Towleroad