memeorandum: The Media Has A Probability Problem (Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight)

12:55 AM ET, September 22, 2017

Top Items:

Haley Byrd / IJR:

Republicans Attempt to Buy Murkowski's Vote in New Draft of Health Care Bill — A Republican Senate aide told Independent Journal Review Thursday that Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) are attempting to buy Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski's support through new changes …

Discussion: New York Magazine, Hit & Run, Washington Post, ACA Signups, Shareblue, The Daily Caller, Washington Monthly, Vox, Axios and Political Wire

Caitlin Owens / Axios:

New CMS estimate shows key holdouts' states lose funding under Graham-Cassidy — A new estimate obtained by Axios from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) projects that Alaska, home to key swing vote Sen. Lisa Murkowski, would lose 38% of federal funding for premium subsidies …

Eugene Robinson / Washington Post:

This Republican health-care bill is the most monstrous yet — Motivated by the cynical aims of fulfilling a bumper-sticker campaign promise and lavishing tax cuts on the wealthy, Republicans are threatening to pass a health-care bill they know will make millions of Americans sicker and poorer.

Discussion: CNN, Shareblue, Daily Kos, WTVR-TV, bcbs.com, Forbes, The Mahablog, New York Magazine and NBC News, more at Mediagazer »

The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation:
State-by-State Estimates of Changes in Federal Spending on Health Care Under the Graham-Cassidy Bill

Discussion: New York Times, Breitbart, Washington Post, Daily Kos, New York Magazine, Talking Points Memo, No More Mister Nice Blog, Center For Children …, FiveThirtyEight and Vox

Brian Galle / Whatever Source Derived:
The “Alaska Purchase” Is Probably Unconstitutional

Discussion: Washington Post and IJR

Russell Berman / The Atlantic:
How Democrats Gave the GOP One More Chance to Repeal Obamacare

Discussion: Outside the Beltway

Daniella Diaz / CNN:
CNN to host town hall debate Monday with Graham, Cassidy, Sanders and Klobuchar

Discussion: KTLA, Washington Free Beacon, The Atlantic, Axios and The Daily Beast

Jennifer Haberkorn / Politico:
Alaska could get relief from Senate repeal bill's Medicaid cuts

Discussion: Vox, Shareblue, Axios, ABC News, Washington Examiner, New York Magazine, ThinkProgress, The Hill, Washington Post, Politicus USA and The Week

Associated Press:

Kim Jong Un: ‘Deranged’ Trump will ‘pay dearly’ for threat — UNITED NATIONS — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called President Donald Trump “deranged” and said, in a statement carried by the state news agency, that the U.S. president will “pay dearly” for his threats.

Discussion: USA Today, The Hill, IJR and Axios

John Cassidy / New Yorker:
There is No Trump Doctrine, Only Contradictions and Bluster

Discussion: CNN, Salon, The Nation, American Greatness, The Federalist and CNBC

David Nakamura / Washington Post:
Trump imposes new sanctions on North Korea; Kim says he will ‘tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire’

Discussion: Mashable, RedState, New York Magazine and Mediaite

Reuters:
China's central bank tells banks to stop doing business with North Korea: sources

Discussion: Fox News, The Daily Caller, The Guardian, Conservative News Today, IJR, The Atlantic, Fox News Insider, Talking Points Memo and Associated Press

Joshua Berlinger / CNN:
North Korea: Trump's UN speech amounted to ‘the sound of a dog barking’

Discussion: KFOR-TV, FOX2now.com, KTLA, WTVR-TV and The Week

CNN:
Trump turns to sanctions, diplomacy on North Korea after threatening destruction

Discussion: WTVR-TV, Reuters, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, Daily Wire, The Week and KTLA

Mark Zuckerberg:

I just went live a minute ago. Here's what I said: — Today is my first day back in the office after taking parental leave. It was really special to be with Priscilla and August after she was born, and to get to spend some more time with Max. — While I was out on leave …

Discussion: Los Angeles Times, NPR, Mashable, The Daily Caller, New York Magazine, Gizmodo, The Verge, Sunlight Foundation and Engadget, more at Mediagazer »

Colin Stretch / Facebook:
Facebook to Provide Congress With Ads Linked to Internet Research Agency

Discussion: CNNMoney, BuzzFeed, The Guardian, Engadget, Mother Jones, IJR, GeekWire, Mashable, The Verge, The Week, KTLA and Business Insider, more at Mediagazer »

Elliot Schrage / Facebook:
Hard Questions: More on Russian Ads

Discussion: Deadline, Axios, Talking Points Memo and RT

Washington Post: Facebook to turn over thousands of Russian ads to Congress, reversing decision

Washington Post: Facebook to give Congress copies of 3,000 political ads bought through Russian accounts, reversing previous decision

Dan Diamond / Politico:

Price traveled by private plane at least 24 times — Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price has taken at least 24 flights on private charter planes at taxpayers' expense since early May, according to people with knowledge of his travel plans and a review of HHS documents.

Discussion: New York Magazine, Politicus USA, Mediaite, Talking Points Memo, FierceHealthcare, Washington Post and CNBC

Maria Danilova / Associated Press:
On work trips, DeVos flies on her plane at own expense

Discussion: Politico, The Daily Caller, Hit & Run and twitchy.com

CNN:

Senate candidate Roy Moore in 2005: ‘Homosexual conduct should be illegal’ — STORY HIGHLIGHTS — (CNN)Roy Moore, a Republican US Senate candidate in Alabama, said in a 2005 interview that he believes “homosexual conduct” should be illegal. — Moore, a hardline conservative Christian …

Discussion: Business Insider, The Daily Caller, Washington Post, Booman Tribune and Mediaite

John Verhovek / ABC News:
5 moments that mattered in the Alabama US Senate debate

Discussion: Politico

Henry C. Jackson / Politico: 45 After Dark: The Gambler edition

Financial Times:

Steve Bannon held secret meeting in Beijing — Steve Bannon flew to Beijing last week for a secret meeting with the second most powerful Chinese Communist party official, less than a month after the former chief White House strategist declared that America was at “economic war with China”.

Discussion: Raw Story

Christopher Ingraham / Washington Post:

Flint's lead-poisoned water had a ‘horrifyingly large’ effect on fetal deaths, study finds — The fertility rate in Flint, Mich., dropped precipitously after the city decided to switch to lead-poisoned Flint River water in 2014, according to a new working paper.

Discussion: Jezebel, Verrit, TheBlaze, AOL, The Reality-Based Community and Mother Jones

Josh Dawsey / Politico:

Mueller requested phone records about Air Force One statement — The special counsel has also recently made requests for documents concerning a statement made by Sean Spicer in the days preceding James Comey's firing as FBI director. — Special counsel Robert Mueller has sought phone records concerning …

Ryan Broderick / BuzzFeed:

Trump Supporters Quietly Built A Massive List With The Personal Information Of Thousands Of People — The list began traveling the dark corners of the internet around April as a scattered collection of names, addresses, phone numbers and social media accounts. It's now a massive organized database of thousands of people.

Discussion: Raw Story

New York Times:

Skadden, Big New York Law Firm, Faces Questions on Work With Manafort — The Justice Department wants information about Skadden's work on behalf of a Russia-aligned former president of Ukraine. — September 21, 2017 — Mueller Seeks White House Documents Related to Trump's Actions as President

Discussion: The Daily Caller, Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo and Raw Story

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

The Media Has A Probability Problem — This is the 11th and final article in a series that reviews news coverage of the 2016 general election, explores how Donald Trump won and why his chances were underrated by most of the American media. — Two Saturday nights ago …

Ken Belson / New York Times:

Aaron Hernandez Found to Have Severe C.T.E. — Aaron Hernandez, the former New England Patriots tight end who committed suicide in April while serving a life sentence for murder, was found to have a severe form of C.T.E., the degenerative brain disease linked to repeated head trauma …

Discussion: Deadspin, NPR, Le·gal In·sur·rec· tion, ProFootballTalk, The Root, New York Magazine and The Week

New York Times:

Trump Poised to Drop Some Limits on Drone Strikes and Commando Raids — WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is preparing to dismantle key Obama-era limits on drone strikes and commando raids outside conventional battlefields, according to officials familiar with internal deliberations.

Discussion: Just Security

Maxwell Tani / Business Insider:

Former CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson offers epic apology after tweeting anti-Semitic story: ‘One should not tweet while moving’ — Valerie Plame Wilson offered another apology Thursday hours after tweeting an anti-Semitic article titled “America's Jews Are Driving America's Wars,” …