memeorandum: Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started (Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight)

12:45 PM ET, November 8, 2022

Top Items:

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started — Republicans are favored in the House. The Senate is more competitive. — By Nate Silver — Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM — When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance …

Discussion: Split Ticket, Vox, New York Magazine and Exiled Policy

Amy Walter / Cook Political Report:

Three Most Likely Scenarios for Tuesday — When it comes to possible outcomes on Tuesday night, I see three potential scenarios. — 1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election — We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House.

Discussion: Wall Street Journal, De Civitate, The Guardian, Reuters, New Republic, The Daily Wire, The Daily Caller, WHNT-TV, Outside the Beltway and HuffPost

Spencer Abraham / Washington Free Beacon:
On Election Day, Here's What the Polls Really Say

Discussion: HotAir and Daily Kos

Sahil Kapur / NBC News:
Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night

Discussion: Washington Post, Politico, Washington Examiner, The Hill, NPR, New York Times, Slate, Sacramento Bee and Roll Call

Kimberly Wehle / The Bulwark:

Case After Case After Case: The GOP Keeps Suing to Toss Out Midterm Ballots — “While it is easy to hurl accusations of violations of law and corruption, it is another matter to come forward and produce the evidence.” — The midterms have sparked debate as to whether this election is a referendum on the future of American democracy.

Discussion: Washington Post, The Atlantic, Raw Story, MLive.com, Occupy Democrats, Los Angeles Times and Bridge Michigan

The Philadelphia Inquirer:

John Fetterman's Pa. Senate campaign is suing to have undated and misdated ballots counted — Lt. Gov. John Fetterman's campaign for U.S. Senate has joined the legal fight over whether mail ballots with no date or the incorrect date should be counted in Tuesday's election …

Washington Post:
DeSantis official says Justice Dept. can't send monitors to 3 Florida counties

Discussion: Fox News, The Gateway Pundit, The Capitolist and Florida Politics

Michael Balsamo / Associated Press:
Justice Department to monitor voting rights across 24 states

Discussion: Florida Politics, The Post Millennial, Washington Times, Ace of Spades HQ, Fox News, Bloomberg and Raw Story

OpenSecrets.org:
Most Expensive Races — Some Congressional races are seeing more spent by super PACs …

Discussion: NewsNation, Raw Story, Fox News and The Post Millennial

U.S. Department of Justice:
Justice Department to Monitor Polls in 24 States for Compliance with Federal Voting Rights Laws

David Weigel / Semafor:
Republicans hope Michigan is proof-of-concept for an LGBT backlash

Discussion: New York Times, The Federalist, Daily Kos, NBC News, Washington Post, Sputnik News, National Review, Election Law Blog and The Daily Wire

Catherine Rampell / Washington Post:

Democrats are drowning in denial — Democrats appear to be heading toward painful losses on Tuesday, in one if not both houses of Congress. What went wrong will be debated for months, perhaps years. — Much of the problem can be summed up in one word: denial.

Discussion: Fox News, OPB, The Mahablog, HotAir, Mediaite, The Hill and Bloomberg

CNN:

Biden readies for ‘a horrible two years’ if GOP takes control of Congress — As if Democrats needed any more convincing Tuesday's midterm elections carry enormous stakes, President Joe Biden offered a bluntly dire assessment during a fundraiser last Friday in Chicago.

Discussion: Associated Press, Reuters, The Free Press, The Daily Caller, CBS News and Blue Virginia

Politico:
POLITICO Playbook: Bidenworld makes peace with the midterms

Discussion: National Review, Fox News, Opinion Today, NBC News, Politico, CNN and Sabato's Crystal Ball

Jason Lange / Reuters:
Biden approval ticks lower as Democrats brace for midterm losses -Reuters/Ipsos

Discussion: The Hill, The Daily Caller, Washington Times, The Federalist and Sputnik News

Scott Dworkin / Newsweek:
Democracy Is on the Ballot. The Democrats Are the Only Choice

Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's Zelensky Sets Conditions for ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia — President says he is open to negotiations that guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was open to negotiations with Russia if they are focused …

Discussion: Washington Post, The Hill, Breitbart, The Daily Caller, The Times of Israel, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, PravdaReport and Euractiv

Washington Post:
Russia's heavy casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare official response

Discussion: Washington Examiner and The Hill

Washington Post:
In one Ukrainian village, occupation ended — and the feud began

Discussion: New York Times

Marc Santora / Reuters:
Russia-Ukraine War — As Battle in Skies Escalates, Ukraine Warns Russia Is Seeking Iranian Missiles

Discussion: The Hill, Defense One, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Balloon Juice and NPR

Associated Press:
N. Korea denies US claims it sent artillery shells to Russia

Discussion: Washington Examiner, The Hill, Defense One, The Guardian, Al Jazeera and globalnews.ca

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post:

Trump is losing steam. That's reason for Biden to bow out in 2024. — Donald Trump is losing steam. Even his nicknames have gotten weaker. — Over the weekend, right-wing commentators were irate at the former president for taking a jab at Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom he referred to as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

Discussion: Washington Examiner, The Guardian, The Daily Beast, HotAir and Echelon Insights

Jonathan Martin / Politico:

Biden's and Trump's Performances on the 2022 Trail Sow Doubts About 2024 — OCEANSIDE, Calif. — It's the bipartisan truth that dare not speak its name, at least not in public: Republicans and Democrats alike are stumbling into the midterm elections saddled with presidential frontrunners …

Discussion: Associated Press, New York Post, Bloomberg, Washington Times, Cyprus Mail, Instapundit, CBS News and The Hill

Matt Keener / American Thinker:
Does Joe Biden Know The Fix Is In?

Discussion: Chris Waldburger and Washington Post

Lawrence Norden / Brennan Center for Justice:

Why Does It Take So Long to Count Mail Ballots in Key States? Blame Legislatures … The slow count of mail ballots has been used to cast doubt on election results, but these delays are a deliberate choice by lawmakers in battleground states. — Lawrence Norden Photo — Derek Tisler Photo

Discussion: Washington Post, Brookings, HuffPost, USA Today, NPR, WHNT-TV, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Axios and Media Matters for America

Sam Roberts / New York Times:

Ernie Lazar, Who Trawled for Secret Government Documents, Dies at 77 — By pursuing his “unusual hobby” of filing as many as 10,000 Freedom of Information requests about extremist groups, he proved invaluable to historians and journalists. — Ernie Lazar, an unheralded hero of researchers …

Julia Davis / The Daily Beast:

Putin Insiders Pray for ‘Frightening’ GOP Election Sweep — Kremlin cheerleaders are hoping for Republicans to win big in the midterms to unleash “poisonous American spiders, tearing each other up” on Capitol Hill. — Russian state media is following the midterm elections in the United States …

Discussion: Raw Story

Nate Cohn / New York Times:

Are the Polls Still Missing ‘Hidden’ Republicans? Here's What We're Doing to Find Out. — There was no breakthrough in our experiment, but the differences were intriguing. — It won't be long until we learn the results of the 2022 midterm elections — and how the polls fared.

Bloomberg:

The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis — In the most densely populated corner of the US, temperatures are about to drop after a stretch of unusually warm weather. And the signs of a winter crisis are already multiplying. — Heating oil delivered to New York is the priciest ever.

Discussion: National Review, IJR and Washington Free Beacon

Casey Newton / Platformer:

Musk discusses putting all of Twitter behind a paywall — Will he go through with it? PLUS: Botched layoffs, how the new Blue could lose money, and more — If Friday brought massive layoffs to Twitter, Monday brought fresh evidence that the company will never be the same.

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Gizmodo, XDA Developers, HotAir, Fortune, Mashable, Metro.co.uk, The Register, New York Times, Twitchy, The Verge, Bloomberg, Adweek and Breitbart, more at Techmeme »

Tim Miller / The Triad:

The Empress of Trollistan: Kari Lake Is Having the Time of Her Life — The party that's having fun usually wins. — Hey fam: JVL here. Tim has taken over the Triad this morning with a report from on the ground in Arizona. Instead of guessing about what's going to happen today …

David Gilbert / VICE:

Meet the ‘Black Robe Regiment’ of Extremist Pastors Spreading Christian Nationalism — “There is a very serious spiritual battle we have and we don't have any problem with saying we are fighting things we can't see.” — David Gilbert — TO — PHOENIX — Days before the midterm elections …

Charlie Mahtesian / Politico:

The looming election disaster — OFF THE RAILS — It's time to talk about it out loud: This year's election is going to be a train wreck. Not just Election Day, but the weeks and perhaps even months to come. — For starters, it might not be clear who controls the House for days, or longer.

Discussion: Morning Shots, The Atlantic, ABC News and New York Times

Alexander Hall / Fox News:

Karine Jean-Pierre blasted for warning it may take ‘a few days’ to count votes: ‘This insanity has to stop’ — Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton warned, ‘Counting ballots after Election Day undermines voter confidence.’ — White House warns midterm results may be delayed

Discussion: The Post Millennial, Breitbart, IJR and The Daily Wire