memeorandum: Midterm elections 2022: Live updates and election day news (NBC News)

2:20 PM ET, November 8, 2022

Top Items:

Sahil Kapur / NBC News:

Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night — Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other key races to watch on Election Day — The 2022 midterms are shaping up to culminate in an unpredictable election night, with recent surveys showing close fights in a host …

Discussion: Washington Post, Politico, The Hill, NPR, New York Times, Washington Examiner, Slate, Sacramento Bee and Roll Call

Amy Walter / Cook Political Report:

Three Most Likely Scenarios for Tuesday — When it comes to possible outcomes on Tuesday night, I see three potential scenarios. — 1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election — We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House.

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Tangle, Wall Street Journal, De Civitate, The Guardian, WHNT-TV, The Daily Caller, Outside the Beltway, HuffPost and Reuters

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started — Republicans are favored in the House. The Senate is more competitive. — By Nate Silver — Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM — When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance …

Discussion: Split Ticket, Vox, New York Magazine and Exiled Policy

New York Times:

The Needle: Senate and House Forecast — Chance of winning Senate control — No estimates yet — Very Likely Likely Leaning Tossup Leaning Likely Very Likely — Chance of winning House control — No estimates yet — Very Likely Likely Leaning Tossup Leaning Likely Very Likely

NBC News:

Midterm elections 2022: Live updates and election day news — Polls open with control of Congress at stake … North Carolina Republicans are poised to expand their hold on the House and the Senate into a supermajority this election, clearing the way to push through greater restrictions on abortion, a political expert said.

Discussion: Raw Story and Big League Politics

The Philadelphia Inquirer:
Vote count in Philadelphia will take longer due to last-minute change; 3,500 flawed ballots can be fixed at City Hall today

Discussion: New York Times, Associated Press, Politico, One America News Network, Daily Kos, UPI and Spotlight PA

Spencer Abraham / Washington Free Beacon:
On Election Day, Here's What the Polls Really Say

Discussion: HotAir and Daily Kos

CNN:

Biden readies for ‘a horrible two years’ if GOP takes control of Congress — These investigations will take center stage in a Republican-led House — CNN political director explains how election calls are made — Pelosi describes her experience following husband's attack that was intended for her

Discussion: Reuters, Washington Examiner, The Hill, FOX8 WGHP, The Free Press, The Daily Caller, The Daily Wire, HuffPost, C-SPAN.org, Fox News, Mediaite, Blue Virginia and Newsweek

Zeke Miller / Associated Press:
Biden's next 2 years: changes afoot whatever midterms bring

Discussion: NBC News, The Guardian, The Free Press, Talking Points Memo, Associated Press, NBC Bay Area, New Jersey Online, Frontpage Mag, Bloomberg, Politico, WPRI-TV, PBS NewsHour, CBS News, Fox News, Sputnik News, Axios and The New Arab

Washington Post:
Republicans could deepen their war with corporate America

Discussion: Semafor

Catherine Rampell / Washington Post:
Democrats are drowning in denial

Discussion: Fox News, The Mahablog, OPB, HotAir, Mediaite and The Hill

Jason Lange / Reuters:
Biden approval ticks lower as Democrats brace for midterm losses -Reuters/Ipsos

Discussion: Washington Times, The Daily Caller, The Hill, The Federalist, Sputnik News and NBC News

Kimberly Wehle / The Bulwark:

Case After Case After Case: The GOP Keeps Suing to Toss Out Midterm Ballots — “While it is easy to hurl accusations of violations of law and corruption, it is another matter to come forward and produce the evidence.” — The midterms have sparked debate as to whether this election is a referendum on the future of American democracy.

Discussion: Washington Post, The Atlantic, Raw Story, MLive.com, Occupy Democrats, Los Angeles Times and Bridge Michigan

The Philadelphia Inquirer:
John Fetterman's Pa. Senate campaign is suing to have undated and misdated ballots counted

Axios:
Dem campaigns sound alarm about “red mirage” redux

Discussion: The Federalist and Insider

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post:

Trump is losing steam. That's reason for Biden to bow out in 2024. — Donald Trump is losing steam. Even his nicknames have gotten weaker. — Over the weekend, right-wing commentators were irate at the former president for taking a jab at Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom he referred to as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Twitchy, The Guardian, The Daily Beast, Ringside at the Reckoning, Echelon Insights and HotAir

Jonathan Martin / Politico:

Biden's and Trump's Performances on the 2022 Trail Sow Doubts About 2024 — OCEANSIDE, Calif. — It's the bipartisan truth that dare not speak its name, at least not in public: Republicans and Democrats alike are stumbling into the midterm elections saddled with presidential frontrunners …

Discussion: Associated Press, New York Post, CNN, National Review, Bloomberg, Washington Times, Cyprus Mail, Instapundit, CBS News and The Hill

Politico:
POLITICO Playbook: Bidenworld makes peace with the midterms

Discussion: Commentary Magazine, Washington Post, National Review, Punchbowl News, Fox News, Opinion Today, Reuters, Politico, Sabato's Crystal Ball and CNN

Matt Keener / American Thinker:
Does Joe Biden Know The Fix Is In?

Discussion: Chris Waldburger, Daily Mail, Bloomberg and Washington Post

Washington Post:

Russia's heavy casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare official response — RIGA, Latvia — Steep Russian casualties in key battles in eastern Ukraine have prompted an unusual public outcry — and sharp criticism of military commanders — by surviving soldiers and family members …

Discussion: HotAir, Washington Examiner and The Hill

Wall Street Journal:
Ukraine's Zelensky Sets Conditions for ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia

Discussion: Politico, Washington Post, Breitbart, The Hill, Associated Press, The Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, The Daily Caller, PravdaReport and Euractiv

Washington Post:
In one Ukrainian village, occupation ended — and the feud began

Discussion: New York Times

Marc Santora / Reuters:
Russia-Ukraine War — As Battle in Skies Escalates, Ukraine Warns Russia Is Seeking Iranian Missiles

Discussion: The Hill, Defense One, Wall Street Journal, New York Times and NPR

Associated Press:
N. Korea denies US claims it sent artillery shells to Russia

Discussion: Washington Examiner, The Hill, Defense One, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, globalnews.ca and Associated Press

Lawrence Norden / Brennan Center for Justice:

Why Does It Take So Long to Count Mail Ballots in Key States? Blame Legislatures … The slow count of mail ballots has been used to cast doubt on election results, but these delays are a deliberate choice by lawmakers in battleground states. — Lawrence Norden Photo — Derek Tisler Photo

Discussion: HuffPost, Sacramento Bee, Washington Post, USA Today, NPR, Brookings, FOX8 WGHP, Las Vegas Review-Journal, CNN, Axios and Media Matters for America

Rolling Stone:

Trump Keeps Musing About Journalists Being Raped in Prison — He's Not Joking — A knowledgeable source tells Rolling Stone that the former president has wondered how he might be able to jail reporters if he retakes the White House — DONALD TRUMP ENDED his pre-midterm rally blitz in disgusting fashion …

Discussion: The Gateway Pundit, Common Dreams and Raw Story

Nick R. Martin / The Informant:

Paul Gosar says Kari Lake might order military blockade of tribal land — The congressman floats the idea that Lake could order the National Guard to surround the Tohono O'odham Nation if she becomes Arizona governor. — In the days leading up to the 2022 election, Arizona Republican Congressman Paul Gosar …

Discussion: Raw Story, Vox, TIME and Washington Examiner

Tim Miller / The Triad:

The Empress of Trollistan: Kari Lake Is Having the Time of Her Life — The party that's having fun usually wins. — Hey fam: JVL here. Tim has taken over the Triad this morning with a report from on the ground in Arizona. Instead of guessing about what's going to happen today …

David Gilbert / VICE:

Meet the ‘Black Robe Regiment’ of Extremist Pastors Spreading Christian Nationalism — “There is a very serious spiritual battle we have and we don't have any problem with saying we are fighting things we can't see.” — David Gilbert — TO — PHOENIX — Days before the midterm elections …

Discussion: Raw Story

Sam Roberts / New York Times:

Ernie Lazar, Who Trawled for Secret Government Documents, Dies at 77 — By pursuing his “unusual hobby” of filing as many as 10,000 Freedom of Information requests about extremist groups, he proved invaluable to historians and journalists. — Ernie Lazar, an unheralded hero of researchers …

Eli Lake / Commentary Magazine:

Can the FBI Be Saved from Itself—And Can We Be Saved from the FBI? — For the last half century, Americans have told themselves a pleasant story about the Federal Bureau of Investigation. It goes like this: Yes, there were abuses during the long tenure of FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover.

Julia Davis / The Daily Beast:

Putin Insiders Pray for ‘Frightening’ GOP Election Sweep — Kremlin cheerleaders are hoping for Republicans to win big in the midterms to unleash “poisonous American spiders, tearing each other up” on Capitol Hill. — Russian state media is following the midterm elections in the United States …

Discussion: Raw Story

Washington Post:

Photos from Election Day: Across the U.S., voters head to the polls — Voters across the U.S. head to the polls in the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats and Republicans are locked in a fierce fight for control of the Senate, with a handful of races that could tip control of the chamber.

Discussion: FOX8 WGHP, Iowa Starting Line and USA Today

Nate Cohn / New York Times:

Are the Polls Still Missing ‘Hidden’ Republicans? Here's What We're Doing to Find Out. — There was no breakthrough in our experiment, but the differences were intriguing. — It won't be long until we learn the results of the 2022 midterm elections — and how the polls fared.