memeorandum: The World Is Falling Short of Its Climate Goals. Four Big Emitters Show Why. (New York Times)

3:40 PM ET, November 8, 2022

Top Items:

The Needle: Senate and House Forecast — Chance of winning Senate control — No estimates yet — Very Likely Likely Leaning Tossup Leaning Likely Very Likely — Chance of winning House control — No estimates yet — Very Likely Likely Leaning Tossup Leaning Likely Very Likely

Amy Walter / Cook Political Report:

Three Most Likely Scenarios for Tuesday — When it comes to possible outcomes on Tuesday night, I see three potential scenarios. — 1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election — We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House.

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Tangle, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, New Republic, De Civitate, WHNT-TV, The Daily Caller, Outside the Beltway, HuffPost and Reuters

Sahil Kapur / NBC News:

Early bellwethers: Key races to watch once polls close on election night — Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other key races to watch on Election Day — The 2022 midterms are shaping up to culminate in an unpredictable election night, with recent surveys showing close fights in a host …

Discussion: Politico, Washington Post, The Hill, NPR, New York Times, Washington Examiner, Slate, Sacramento Bee and Roll Call

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started — Republicans are favored in the House. The Senate is more competitive. — By Nate Silver — Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM — When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance …

Discussion: Vox, Split Ticket, New York Magazine and Exiled Policy

Spencer Abraham / Washington Free Beacon:
On Election Day, Here's What the Polls Really Say

Discussion: HotAir and Daily Kos

Kimberly Wehle / The Bulwark:

Case After Case After Case: The GOP Keeps Suing to Toss Out Midterm Ballots — “While it is easy to hurl accusations of violations of law and corruption, it is another matter to come forward and produce the evidence.” — The midterms have sparked debate as to whether this election is a referendum on the future of American democracy.

Discussion: Washington Post, The Atlantic, Raw Story and MLive.com

Axios:

Dem campaigns sound alarm about “red mirage” redux — Democrats running the party's national campaign arm held a private call with allies and stakeholders Monday night to discuss “urgent messaging” if a flurry of GOP candidates claim victory prematurely, Axios has learned.

Discussion: The Federalist and Insider

The Philadelphia Inquirer:
Vote count in Philadelphia will take longer due to last-minute change; 3,500 flawed ballots can be fixed at City Hall today

Discussion: Washington Examiner, New York Times, Associated Press, Politico, Human Events, One America News Network, Daily Kos, UPI and Spotlight PA

NBC News:
Midterm elections 2022: Live updates and election day news

Discussion: The Daily Beast, Mediaite, Raw Story and Big League Politics

The Philadelphia Inquirer:
John Fetterman's Pa. Senate campaign is suing to have undated and misdated ballots counted

Brooke Singman / Fox News:

Trump calls for Senate Republican leadership change, warns potential 2024 GOP candidates against running — Trump said Sen. Rick Scott should replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader, and warned DeSantis against running in 2024 — Donald Trump: This is the ‘America First’ agenda

Discussion: New York Post, The Wrap, Deseret News and Big League Politics

Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post:

Trump is losing steam. That's reason for Biden to bow out in 2024. — Donald Trump is losing steam. Even his nicknames have gotten weaker. — Over the weekend, right-wing commentators were irate at the former president for taking a jab at Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom he referred to as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

Discussion: Washington Examiner, Twitchy, The Guardian, The Daily Beast, Ringside at the Reckoning, Echelon Insights and HotAir

Jonathan Martin / Politico:
Biden's and Trump's Performances on the 2022 Trail Sow Doubts About 2024

Discussion: RedState, Washington Times, Associated Press, New York Post, CNN, Bloomberg, National Review, Cyprus Mail, Instapundit, CBS News and The Hill

Politico:
POLITICO Playbook: Bidenworld makes peace with the midterms

Discussion: Commentary Magazine, Punchbowl News, Washington Post, National Review, Fox News, Opinion Today, Reuters, Sabato's Crystal Ball, CNN and Politico

Matt Keener / American Thinker:
Does Joe Biden Know The Fix Is In?

Discussion: Chris Waldburger, Daily Mail, Bloomberg and Washington Post

CNN:

Biden readies for ‘a horrible two years’ if GOP takes control of Congress — These investigations will take center stage in a Republican-led House — CNN political director explains how election calls are made — Pelosi describes her experience following husband's attack that was intended for her

Discussion: Reuters, Washington Examiner, The Hill, The Daily Caller, The Free Press, FOX8 WGHP, The Daily Wire, HuffPost, Reuters, C-SPAN.org, NBC News, Fox News, Mediaite, Blue Virginia and Newsweek

Washington Post:
Republicans could deepen their war with corporate America

Discussion: Semafor

Zeke Miller / Associated Press:
Biden's next 2 years: changes afoot whatever midterms bring

Catherine Rampell / Washington Post:
Democrats are drowning in denial

Discussion: Washington Examiner, OPB, Fox News, The Mahablog, The Hill, The Federalist, Mediaite and HotAir

Nick R. Martin / The Informant:

Paul Gosar says Kari Lake might order military blockade of tribal land — The congressman floats the idea that Lake could order the National Guard to surround the Tohono O'odham Nation if she becomes Arizona governor. — In the days leading up to the 2022 election, Arizona Republican Congressman Paul Gosar …

Discussion: Raw Story, Vox, TIME and Washington Examiner

Lauren Pack / journal-news:

Court docs: Man charged in Okeana homicide admitted to shooting neighbor — A Morgan Twp. man charged with murder admitted to shooting and killing his neighbor in Okeana on Saturday, according to court documents. — Austin Gene Combs, 26, was booked into the Butler County Jail on Saturday night and charged with murder.

Discussion: Occupy Democrats and Raw Story

Rolling Stone:

Trump Keeps Musing About Journalists Being Raped in Prison — He's Not Joking — A knowledgeable source tells Rolling Stone that the former president has wondered how he might be able to jail reporters if he retakes the White House — DONALD TRUMP ENDED his pre-midterm rally blitz in disgusting fashion …

Discussion: Lawyers, Guns & Money, Common Dreams, The Gateway Pundit and Raw Story

Lawrence Norden / Brennan Center for Justice:

Why Does It Take So Long to Count Mail Ballots in Key States? Blame Legislatures … The slow count of mail ballots has been used to cast doubt on election results, but these delays are a deliberate choice by lawmakers in battleground states. — Lawrence Norden Photo — Derek Tisler Photo

Discussion: HuffPost, Sacramento Bee, The Daily Wire, USA Today, NPR, Washington Post, FOX8 WGHP, Brookings, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Axios and Media Matters for America

David Gilbert / VICE:

Meet the ‘Black Robe Regiment’ of Extremist Pastors Spreading Christian Nationalism — “There is a very serious spiritual battle we have and we don't have any problem with saying we are fighting things we can't see.” — David Gilbert — TO — PHOENIX — Days before the midterm elections …

Discussion: Raw Story

Charlie Sykes / Morning Shots:

Buckle Up — It's only going to get wilder — Join us tonight! — Join the gang tonight on Zoom to watch the returns come in from across the country starting at 9:30 p.m. ET. — Bulwark+ Exclusive. (So sign up now.) — Really, no one knows what's going to happen …

Discussion: Raw Story

Charlie Mahtesian / Politico:
The looming election disaster

Discussion: New York Times, The Atlantic and ABC News

Tim Miller / The Triad:

The Empress of Trollistan: Kari Lake Is Having the Time of Her Life — The party that's having fun usually wins. — Hey fam: JVL here. Tim has taken over the Triad this morning with a report from on the ground in Arizona. Instead of guessing about what's going to happen today …

Damien Cave / New York Times:

The World's Democracies Ask: Why Can't America Fix Itself? — Conversations across continents reveal alarm over the United States' direction, as it slides away from ideals it once pressed other nations to adopt. — Damien Cave reported from Taipei, Taiwan, and Sydney, Australia.

Discussion: Fox News

New York Times:

Epstein Victim Says She May Have Made a Mistake in Accusing Dershowitz — Virginia Giuffre, who was trafficked as a girl by the financier Jeffrey E. Epstein, had accused Alan Dershowitz, a law professor, of abusing her. Now she says she is no longer certain.

Discussion: The Daily Beast, Law & Crime and IJR

CNN:

House select committee has interviewed the driver of Trump's vehicle on January 6 — The House select committee investigating January 6 on Monday interviewed the driver of then-President Donald Trump's presidential vehicle on the day of the US Capitol attack, multiple sources tell CNN.

Discussion: Raw Story and NBC News

Daily Mail:

University of Kentucky student sobs in court after assaulting black desk clerk and call her ‘n*****’ 200 times before being bailed out by parents — Sophia Rosing, 22, was arrested 4am on Sunday at a University of Kentucky dorm on public intoxication, assault and disorderly conduct charges

Discussion: The Daily Beast and New York Post

Sam Roberts / New York Times:

Ernie Lazar, Who Trawled for Secret Government Documents, Dies at 77 — By pursuing his “unusual hobby” of filing as many as 10,000 Freedom of Information requests about extremist groups, he proved invaluable to historians and journalists. — Ernie Lazar, an unheralded hero of researchers …

Washington Post:

Photos from Election Day: Across the U.S., voters head to the polls — Voters across the U.S. head to the polls in the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats and Republicans are locked in a fierce fight for control of the Senate, with a handful of races that could tip control of the chamber.

Discussion: Iowa Starting Line, KLAS, USA Today and Sputnik News