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9:55 AM ET, November 5, 2024

memeorandum

 Top Items: 
Jon Ralston / The Nevada Independent:
Editor Jon Ralston's 2024 Nevada election predictions  —  I should have done the mic drop in 2022.  —  Picking the winners in the top two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swan song, the ride off into the sunset on my oracular career.
RELATED:
Judd Legum / Popular Information:
Heads I win, tails you lose  —  In 2020, Donald Trump declared himself the winner of any state where a partial tally of votes showed him ahead.  —  As more votes were counted and Trump fell behind in states where he previously had an advantage, Trump claimed that was evidence of cheating.
Discussion: CNN, Carolina Journal, Forbes, NPR and Reason
Politico:
America's political experts brace for the most unpredictable election of their careers  —  The presidential race is statistically tied in all battleground states, with the down ballot map still in a scramble.  —  Washington's political class is grappling with an uncomfortable, and unprecedented …
Discussion: ABC News and Washington Post
Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin:
A random number generator determined the “favorite” in our forecast
Discussion: The Hill, Reason and IJR
Andrew Solender / Axios:
These are the “canary” House races to watch on Nov. 5
Discussion: ABC News
Alexandra Hutzler / ABC News:
Why the winner of the 2024 presidential race might not be called on election night
Tara Suter / The Hill:   Election forecaster predicts 218-217 House
Casey Newton / Platformer:
X's plan to interfere with the election  —  With polls essentially tied and hours to go until Election Day, no one knows for certain who will win the 2024 US presidential election.  But we can say with some certainty what will happen if the result is anything other than a landslide victory for Donald Trump …
Discussion: IJR, more at Techmeme »
RELATED:
Renee DiResta / The UnPopulist:
The MAGA Propaganda Machine Has Successfully Censored Voices Calling Out its Lies  —  In 2020, the U.S. found itself in the midst of an unprecedented election—one defined not only by candidates or policies, but by a fight over what was real.  During that election, I was one of the leaders …
Tom Jones / Poynter:
What to watch — and what to avoid — on election night  —  It's not about where to watch.  It's about how to watch.  —  Well, we made it.  It's Election Day.  —  Today could go down as one of the most important days in the history of our country as the nation decides between Vice President Kamala Harris …
Discussion: Washington Post
Washington Post:
Election 2024 live updates Polls open with Trump, Harris locked in a tight race  —  Election Day voting has begun in the high-stakes presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump that polls show to be incredibly close and likely to be decided by voters in a handful of battleground states.
RELATED:
Jack Forrest / CNN:
Harris and Trump tie in Dixville Notch midnight vote to kick off Election Day  —  Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have tied with three votes each in the tiny New Hampshire township of Dixville Notch, kicking off Election Day in one of the first places in the country to report its presidential preference.
Stephen Fowler / NPR:
Trump and allies have primed supporters to falsely believe he has no chance of losing  —  It's possible former President Donald Trump wins the election - and also quite possible he loses.  But many in Trump's orbit keep falsely telling his supporters the only way that happens is because of cheating.
Discussion: LGBTQ Nation, Althouse, The Hill and Forbes
Kim Wehle / The Bulwark:
It's Been Four Years. How Ready Are We for ‘Stop the Steal 2.0’?
Discussion: Politico
Charlie Warzel / The Atlantic:
Musk's Twitter Is the Blueprint for a MAGA Government  —  Fire everyone.  Turn it into a personal political weapon.  Let chaos reign.  —  In a recent interview, the former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy made an offhanded comment that connected a few dots for me.
RELATED:
Rebecca Falconer / Axios:
Joe Rogan endorses Trump on eve of Election Day
Amanda Moore / Politico:
A Trump Field Director Was Fired for Being a White Nationalist  —  A white nationalist worked on the Trump campaign in an important position in Pennsylvania for five months — until Friday, when the Pennsylvania GOP fired him after learning about his views from my reporting.
RELATED:
Jonathan Edwards / Washington Post:   Trump organizer who secretly hosted white-nationalist podcast is fired
Federal Bureau of Investigation:
Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement  —  Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released the following statement:  —  Since our statement on Friday …
Amanda Marcotte / Salon:
MAGA outrage over wives voting for Kamala Harris is funny — but it's also dangerous  —  When it comes to political bait, it was the tastiest sort: a cheeky ad run by Vote Common Good, and voiced by Julia Roberts, reminding women that they don't have to tell their husbands if they vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Discussion: Agence France-Presse
Malcolm Ferguson / New Republic:
Trump Announces Dumbest Person You Know Will Lead Missile Defense … Herschel Walker is back and ready to lead our country's missile defense system.  —  That is not some cruel joke, but a very real thing Donald Trump proposed at his Georgia rally on Sunday—minutes after Walker confused …
Ryan J. Reilly / NBC News:
Proud Boys claim they'll be at polling places as Trump ups violent rhetoric and election fraud claims  —  Though several Proud Boys leaders remain in prison on Jan. 6 charges, the far-right militia group remains active, with some chapters saying they'll watch the polls Tuesday.
US Department of Justice:
Georgia Poll Worker Arrested for Making Bomb Threat to Election Workers  —  For Immediate Release  —  A Georgia poll worker was arrested today for mailing a letter to the Jones County Elections Superintendent threatening poll workers.  —  According to the criminal complaint, Nicholas Wimbish …
Ella Lee / The Hill:
Judges deny requests to block DOJ from monitoring polls  —  Federal judges denied two states' requests to bar the Justice Department (DOJ) from dispatching lawyers to monitor adherence to federal voting rights laws on Election Day.  —  Both Missouri and Texas asked federal courts to keep DOJ lawyers away from their polls.
Dan Gillmor / The cornerstone of democracy:
Essentials, November 4, 2024  —  A compendium of the best reporting and commentary surrounding the pivotal 2024 elections in the United States.  You will rarely find horse race coverage here, or the standard “both sides” BS that passes so often for political journalism.
Discussion: The Lever
CNN:
A pro-Trump influencer says a Russian agent paid him $100 to post a fake voter fraud video.  It wasn't the first time  —  An American social media influencer said he was paid $100 by a pro-Kremlin propagandist to post a fake video of Haitian immigrants claiming to vote in the US presidential election.
Discussion: Raw Story and Forbes
Courtney Cohn / Democracy Docket:
Georgia Judge Rejects Third Lawsuit From GOP Fulton County Election Official  —  A Georgia judge rejected a third lawsuit from Julie Adams — a GOP member of the Fulton County Board of Elections and Registration — seeking additional election records she claims she needs to certify tomorrow's election results.
Discussion: The Guardian and ProPublica
Bushra Seddique / The Atlantic:
Americans Who Want Out  —  Some liberals insist that they're not joking this time: They are very scared, and very ready to leave the country if Donald Trump is reelected.  —  Every four years, some liberal Americans threaten to leave the country if a Republican wins the presidency.
Philip Bump / Washington Post:
If Trump were running against Biden right now, he'd be up 7 points  —  New YouGov polling offered Americans an alternative history: What if President Joe Biden hadn't dropped out?  —  Elections are riddled with what-ifs.  Some are immediate: What if we had spent more on television?
Hope Hicks / New York Post:
I was at Trump's side in 2016 — here's why he'll win again  —  Almost 10 years into former President Donald Trump's historic political movement, his critics still cannot grasp what makes him so popular with everyday hardworking Americans — and they still demonize the men and women who support him.
Axios:
Newspapers rapidly kill off the presidential endorsement … - Trump received seven endorsements last cycle. … - Tribune Publishing and MediaNews Group, both owned by Alden Global Capital, said their more than 68 daily and 300 weekly papers would no longer endorse presidents in 2022.
ProPublica:
What ProPublica Reporters Will Be Watching on Election Day  —  Reporters from ProPublica will be on the ground watching stories they've covered unfold as voters head to the polls.  Among the issues: abortion, extremism, poll workers and election administration in battleground states.
Stephen Robinson / Public Notice:
Will America become Russia?  —  We'll find out today. … 🙏 Subscribe to Public Notice 🙏  —  A persistent theme at any Trump rally is MAGA's utter contempt for America, which Donald Trump has repeatedly called a “garbage can for the world.”
 
 
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 More Items: 
Pablo O'Hana / Metro.co.uk:
‘I went to a Trump rally — the curtains are closing on his circus’
Jake Bittle / Grist:
This California congressman is betting the farm on water
Ryland Barton / NPR:
Voters could flip these state legislatures, changing the path for some big issues
Discussion: E&E News
Associated Press:
Landmark Washington climate law faces possible repeal by voters
The Hill:
Razor-tight races could leave House control in limbo for weeks
Discussion: Associated Press and El País
 Earlier Items: 
Olivia Beavers / Politico:
Inside the House GOP's struggle to recruit more women
Discussion: Wall Street Journal and CNN
Tatyana Tandanpolie / Salon:
“I am scared every day”: Experts say GOP men targeting no-fault divorce to keep women “trapped”
Josh Christenson / New York Post:
Harris botched interview with Muslim influencer by celebrating ‘bacon’ as ‘a spice’
 

 
From Mediagazer:

Brian Steinberg / Variety:
Sources: NBCUniversal Vice Chairman Bonnie Hammer plans to leave the company at the end of the year; she has been with the company since 2004

Ashley Carman / Bloomberg:
A growing number of podcasters, including Tim Ferriss, are moving away from interviews to monologues or co-hosts, as some well-known guests can be overexposed

Jonathan Stempel / Reuters:
A New York judge finds Sirius XM liable for a difficult subscription cancellation process; Sirius says it will appeal but abide by a new “click-to-cancel” rule

 
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